Whalesbook
Valuation Ka Chalta Hai Drama
Yaar, D-Mart ka stock January 2026 se ab tak 21% bhaga hai, jo Nifty 50 se kaafi better hai. Lekin analysts ko lagta hai ki stock price uski asli value se bahut upar hai. Is wajah se, rating ko 'Underweight' kar diya gaya hai. Bohot se brokers ab investors ko keh rahe hain ki apna profit book kar lo, kyuki share price aur actual value mein fark badh raha hai.
Performance Toh Mast Thi!
FY26 ke Q4 mein company ne 58 naye stores khole, jisse total 500 stores ho gaye across 17 states. Revenue 19% badh gaya, thoda March 2026 mein consumer buying badhne ki wajah se bhi, jo geopolitical events se link tha. Purane stores mein same-store sales 10.8% badhe, aur processed bills 13% badhe. Discount kam hone ki wajah se Gross aur Operating profit margins bhi 40 basis points badhe.
Valuation Vs. Growth: Kisko Chune?
D-Mart ka earnings multiple lagbhag 100 times hai pichle earnings par, aur FY28 ke liye 73 times ka estimate hai. Ye Reliance Industries ke 22-24 times aur V-Mart ke 37.3 times se kaafi zyada hai. Retail sector mein recovery chal rahi hai, par competition bahut hai. Especially quick commerce sector (Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, Zepto) jisme D-Mart Ready bhi hai, bahut competitive hai aur ab profit par focus kar raha hai. Isliye D-Mart Ready ka operations 25 se 18 cities mein kam kar diya gaya hai. March mein jo buying badhi thi, woh temporary thi aur aage chal kar consumer spending kam ho sakti hai, log zaruri cheezon par zyada dhyaan denge.
D-Mart Ke Liye Risk Kya Hai?
Sabse bada risk D-Mart ki high valuation hai. 100 times se zyada ka multiple matlab market expects huge future growth, jisme mistakes ki koi jagah nahi hai. Reliance Retail jaise competitors ke compare mein valuation justify karna mushkil hai. Store expansion se sales toh badhti hai, par margin par pressure aata hai. New stores usually kam profitable hote hain, aur depreciation & interest costs profits ko kam karte hain. Online business (D-Mart Ready) mein bhi challenges hain. Aur March mein jo spending boost thi, woh future performance ko support nahi karegi. Economic sentiment caution dikha raha hai.
Analysts Ka Kya Kehna Hai?
Kuch analysts long-term growth ko dekh kar positive hain, par zyadaatar ne valuation bahut high hone ki wajah se 'Underweight' ya 'Sell' rating di hai. Average analyst targets suggest karte hain ki stock gir sakta hai. D-Mart se medium se long term mein high-teen revenue growth expect hai, par margins stable rahenge, increase nahi. Iska matlab hai ki expansion aur competition ke costs se jo fayda hoga, woh offset ho jayega, aur earnings growth revenue growth ke barabar hi rahegi.