Whalesbook
Aur numbers dekhte hain toh, April mein around 50.71 lakh new SIPs start hue, jo ek saal ka sabse low figure hai. Uske opposite, 51.29 lakh existing SIPs ko band kar diya gaya. Is wajah se SIP stoppage ratio 101% ho gaya hai. Simple bhasha mein, jitne naye SIPs khule, usse zyada band hue.
Ye sab kyu ho raha hai? Asal mein, global aur Indian markets mein kaafi gadbad chal rahi hai - geopolitical tensions aur economic uncertainty ki wajah se. Haalanki, April mein Nifty 7.5% bhaga tha, March ke 11.3% drop ke baad, market mein recovery dikhi.
Naye investors toh thode darre hue lag rahe hain, par jo bade aur experienced investors hain, woh apna ₹30,000 crore se zyada ka monthly contribution maintain kar rahe hain. Lagta hai woh exit nahi kar rahe, balki apna portfolio rebalance kar rahe hain, matlab funds ko idhar se udhar shift kar rahe hain. Direct equity inflows bhi kam hue hain, aur fixed deposits aur gold ETFs jaise safe assets mein bhi sirf thoda-thoda gain dikh raha hai. Ye dikhata hai ki log risk se bach rahe hain, par pura paisa financial assets se nahi nikal rahe.
Mutual fund industry mein SIPs ka role important hai. April mein SIPs ne ₹16.85 lakh crore manage kiye, jo total mutual fund industry ke assets ka 20.6% hai, aur active accounts ki sankhya 9.65 crore hai.
Aisa nahi hai ki stoppage ratio 100% se upar jana pehli baar hua hai. AMFI ne bataya tha ki April 2025 mein 353% ka ratio purane aur inactive accounts ko clean karne ki wajah se tha, na ki investors ke exit karne ki wajah se. Analysts ka kehna hai ki naye SIP registrations kam hain, par mutual funds mein overall net inflows abhi bhi positive hain, bas thode slow ho gaye hain. Ye inflows zyadaatar existing investors se aa rahe hain jo discipline dikha rahe hain, ho sakta hai woh hybrid funds mein paisa daal rahe hon growth aur capital preservation ke liye.
Par ek concern ye bhi hai ki naye SIP registrations ka lagataar girna investors ke andar ki apprehension dikhata hai. Isse mutual fund companies, especially choti companies jo naye flows par depend karti hain, unke liye competition badh jayegi. Aur kyunki SIPs long-term commitments hote hain, toh abhi jo caution chal rahi hai uska poora asar shayad abhi assets under management (AUM) mein na dikhe. Agar geopolitical tensions aur badhte hain ya economy mein dikkat aati hai, toh disciplined investors bhi apna decision badal sakte hain.
Pehle, January 2025 se pehle, average stoppage ratio around 75% rehta tha, jo abhi ke levels se kaafi stable tha.
Future ki baat karein toh, markets mein volatility rehne wali hai. Economic stability aur geopolitical issues ka resolution bahut zaroori hai. Asset managers ke liye naye aur purane investors ko maintain karna bahut important hoga. Ye stable, par kam, net inflows dikhate hain ki disciplined, long-term SIP investing ka appeal abhi bhi strong hai.