Whalesbook
Asset Allocation mein bada change!
Dekho, Indian mutual fund market mein ek bada shift aa raha hai. March 2026 tak, passive funds (index funds aur ETFs) ab retail investors ke portfolio ka main hissa ban gaye hain, jinka total asset ₹14.11 lakh crore ho gaya hai aur 5.71 crore folios hain. Ye 2020 se pehle ke time se bahut alag hai jab passive assets naam matra the. Paisa sirf market sentiment se nahi aa raha, balki investors samajh gaye hain ki large-cap ke liye active management mein zyada fees dene ke baad bhi returns utne acche nahi mil rahe.
Active Management ka fayda kam kyun ho raha hai?
Pehele log active management ko isliye choose karte the kyunki unhe lagta tha ki fund managers market ko beat kar sakte hain. Lekin ab top stocks par bahut zyada analyst coverage hai aur market bhi deep ho gaya hai, isliye ye edge kam ho gaya hai. Latest data ke mutabik, 70% se zyada active large-cap funds apne benchmark ko consistently beat nahi kar pa rahe, especially jab fees minus kar di jaaye. Haan, mid-cap aur small-cap segments mein active management abhi bhi useful ho sakti hai, par large-cap ab low-cost passive funds ka ilaaka ban gaya hai.
Tracking Error ka constraint!
Index funds saste aur predictable hain, par inme bhi ek problem hai - tracking error. Ye error bataata hai ki fund apne benchmark se kitna alag perform kar raha hai. India ke top index funds mein ye error abhi 0.30% se 0.40% ke aas-paas hai, jo kaafi kam hai. Lekin phir bhi, agar koi fund is error ko control nahi kar paata, toh long-term SIP mein total returns kam ho sakte hain. Market mein zyada competition hone ki wajah se, fund houses ko hamesha apna replication process improve karna padta hai.
Risk aur Volatility ka doubt!
Kuch log passive investing ko 'blind' investing bhi bolte hain. Jab market mein badi girawat aati hai, toh passive funds ko index follow karna hi padta hai, chahe company ki health kaisi bhi ho. Agar koi active manager ho toh woh cash mein shift ho sakta hai ya defensive sectors mein ja sakta hai. Par passive fund toh invest rehta hi hai. Aur toh aur, agar kuch bade fund houses hi index tracking mein dominate karte hain, toh ye ek dependency risk ban sakta hai. Agar retail investors ka sentiment change hua, toh market crash ke time in funds ki selling pressure ek bada issue ban sakti hai.
Aage kya? Hybrid approach!
Passive funds ka trend badh raha hai, par market sirf index-driven nahi hoga. Analysts ka kehna hai ki future mein ek barbell strategy kaam karegi: low-cost index funds se broad market returns lo aur high-conviction active strategies mein thoda invest karo jahan alpha milne ki possibility ho. Investors ab isi balanced approach ki taraf badh rahe hain, kyunki passive funds simplicity aur cost toh dete hain, par extreme volatility mein strategy nahi batate.