Whalesbook
Asal mein, desh mein savings ka trend badal raha hai. Log gold, property se hat kar stocks aur mutual funds ki taraf zyada aa rahe hain. Isi wajah se Asset Management Companies (AMC) ke shares aaj kal toofani tezi dikha rahe hain aur kai toh apne sabse oonche level par pahunch gaye hain.
Is rally ke peeche sabse bada reason hai Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). Inse lagatar paisa aa raha hai, jisne AMCs ka Assets Under Management (AUM) badha diya hai. Ye SIPs pichle saal se 15% se zyada grow hue hain. Iska matlab hai ki market jab upar neeche ho, tab bhi AMCs ke paas paisa aata rahega aur unka business badhega. Fintech aur achhi distribution network bhi isko support kar rahe hain.
Ab sabse interesting baat - sabhi AMCs ek jaisa performance nahi de rahe. HDFC AMC aur ICICI Prudential AMC, jinke market cap Trillion Rupee mein hain, woh kaafi expensive dikh rahe hain. HDFC AMC ka P/E ratio lagbhag 42x hai aur ICICI Prudential AMC ka toh 50x se bhi upar hai. Ye dikhata hai ki market inse bahut zyada growth expect kar raha hai. Wahi doosri taraf, UTI AMC ka P/E ratio 21-23x ke aas paas hai, aur Canara Robeco AMC ka 27x ke paas. Ye gap bata raha hai ki alag alag companies ka growth story aur risk alag ho gaya. Jaise, Canara Robeco AMC, jo equity mein zyada invest karti hai, woh SEBI ke naye rules se fayda utha sakti hai.
Analysts bhi is par bullish hain. Emkay Global ne toh HDFC AMC, ICICI Prudential AMC, aur Nippon Life India AMC sab par 'Buy' rating di hai, aur price target ₹3,200-₹4,000 tak rakha hai HDFC AMC aur IPRUAMC ke liye, aur Nippon Life India AMC ke liye ₹1,150. Dusri research firms bhi apne views de rahi hain.
Acchi khabar yeh bhi hai ki SEBI ke naye expense ratio rules aaye hain, par woh jitne severe lag rahe the, utne nikle nahi. Bade AMCs ke liye zyada fark nahi pada hai. Ab company ka focus AUM badhane aur operational efficiency par rahega. Future mein mutual fund industry ka AUM ₹309 Trillion tak ja sakta hai, matlab growth ki kaafi opportunities hain.
Par bhai, sab kuch itna bhi smooth nahi hai. Jo AMCs abhi bahut expensive hain, jaise HDFC AMC (P/E ~42x) aur ICICI Prudential AMC (P/E ~50x), agar unki growth expectations fulfill nahi hui toh share price gir bhi sakta hai. Competition badh raha hai, aur agar market mein badi girawat aayi toh AUM aur inflows par asar padega. Global factors bhi affect kar sakte hain. AMCs ko apne costs manage karne honge aur naye business models dekhne honge.