Whalesbook
Analyst ka 'BUY' Call, par Target Cut?
Dekho, Prabhudas Lilladher ne Imagicaaworld Entertainment par apna 'BUY' call maintain rakha hai, jo ki ek achhi baat hai. Lekin, unhone stock ka price target ₹70 se ghatakar ₹64 kar diya hai. Ye target cut isliye hua kyunki unhone Shanku's water park ke integration ke baad FY27 ke liye Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates 3% badha di hain. Company ne Ahmedabad project ko cancel karke Shanku's ko liya hai taki paison par zyada load na pade aur development fast ho sake.
Lekin haan, park aur hotel business ke liye valuation multiples ko 17x FY28E EBITDA se kam karke 15x kar diya gaya hai. Baaki analysts ka consensus abhi bhi 'Strong Buy' hai aur unka average target ₹71 hai.
Profit mein Bada Crash aur Delays
Imagicaaworld ke latest Q4 FY26 results ne sabko chaukaya hai. Company ka consolidated net profit 97.46% saal-dar-saal gir gaya hai aur sirf ₹0.40 Crore pe aa gaya. Poore FY26 mein revenue bhi 8.44% kam hokar ₹384.00 Crore raha. EBITDA margin bhi 33.0% pe aa gaya, jo ki expected 43.0% se kaafi kam hai. Iska reason higher 'other expenses' bataya ja raha hai. Aur toh aur, Sabarmati park ka launch ab FY28 ke second half mein hoga, matlab delays toh chal hi rahe hain. Ye sab tab ho raha hai jab India ka amusement park industry saal mein 9-11% grow hone ki ummeed hai.
Valuation ki Tension aur Competitors
Company ka stock P/E ratio 155.93 TTM pe trade kar raha hai, jo ki kaafi high hai. FY26 mein EPS sirf ₹0.01 tha, jo FY25 ke ₹1.43 se bahut kam hai. Profit margin bhi 0.2% pe aa gaya, jabki pehle 19% tha. Agar competitors jaise Wonderla Holidays ko dekhein, jiska market cap ₹3,042 Cr hai aur P/E 37x hai, toh Imagicaaworld ka valuation kaafi stretched lag raha hai. Isliye kuch log ise 'Sucker Stock' bhi keh rahe hain.
Future Kya Kehta Hai?
Halanki abhi financials aur operations mein challenges hain, Prabhudas Lilladher ko lagta hai ki FY26 se FY28E tak sales aur EBITDA mein 14% aur 30% CAGR se growth ho sakti hai, thanks to planned parks in Sabarmati and Mehsana. Yeh ₹64 ka target price basically market ke current hurdles ko reflect karta hai. Stock ko dobara rate hone ke liye projects ko time pe launch karna aur operational profitability sudharna bahut zaroori hoga.