Whalesbook
Socho, ek taraf world mein ceasefire se market ko thodi rahat mili, oil prices bhi kam hue, sabko laga ab sab theek hoga. Lekin luxury sector ke liye ye temporary tha. Asal game changer hai inki saalon purani price hike strategy, jisne kaafi customers ko door kar diya aur market base ko shrink kar diya. Ab jo Q1 earnings reports aane wale hain LVMH, Kering, Hermès aur Richemont ke, wohi asli picture dikhayenge ki ye crisis kitni gehri hai.
Is geopolitical tension ki wajah se luxury stocks ne March end tak $100 billion tak ka nuksan dekha tha. LVMH toh 28% gir gaya, Hermès 20% se zyada, aur Richemont 17%. Kuch analysts bol rahe hain ki uncertainty hatne ke baad LVMH 40% tak recover kar sakta hai aur Richemont 32% tak. Lekin bhai, results mein ye dikhna chahiye ki companies sirf situation ke thik hone ka wait kar rahi hain ya unki demand sach mein recover ho rahi hai.
Pata hai asal gadbad kya hai? Ye log saalon se price par price badha rahe the. 2020 se 2023 ke beech mein average price hike 36% thi! Aur Dior ne toh 51%, Chanel ne 59% tak badha diya tha. Strategy ye thi ki brand ko aur exclusive banayenge aur sirf bahut ameer logon (VICs) par focus karenge. Lekin ye ulta pad gaya. Bain & Company ke hisab se, 2022 mein jo 400 million customers the, woh ab 330-340 million reh gaye hain. Matlab, 60-70 million log toh price hike se pareshan hokar chhod gaye, khaas kar Gen Z aur middle class wale.
Ab brands ko apni strategy change karni pad rahi hai. Jaise Dior aur Chanel ab entry-level items, jaise chote leather bags ya accessories, jo €500 ke aas-paas milenge, wapas la rahe hain. Main products ke price change nahi kar rahe, bas naye logon ko attract karne ki koshish hai. Ab dekhte hain ye kaam karta hai ya nahi. Financials ki baat karein toh LVMH ka P/E lagbhag 22.59 hai aur market cap $233.82 billion hai. Kering ka TTM P/E 31.3158 hai. Hermès ka P/E 37.72 aur market cap $184.25 billion hai. Richemont ka P/E 35.054 aur market cap $92.13 billion hai. Middle East abhi 4-6% growth ke sath ek bright spot hai, America mein 0-2% hai aur Europe mein slow ho raha hai.
Risk abhi bhi bahut hai. Ye ceasefire permanent nahi hai, toh geopolitical stability fragile hai. Customers ko laga ki unko 'betray' kiya gaya hai price hike se value na badha kar. $100 billion ki market cap drop yahi dikha raha hai ki sirf price badha kar growth ka model ab kaam nahi karega. Supply chains bhi risky hain. Overall, luxury industry ek crossroads par hai. Ab asli value aur customer trust dikhana hoga. Jo brands sach mein badlav layenge, wahi aage jayenge.