Dekho yaar, yeh jo prediction markets hain na, Kalshi aur Polymarket jaisi badi platforms, inpe US mein authorities ka pressure bahut high ho gaya hai. Sabko dar hai ki yeh gambling aur insider trading ka tareeka na ban jaaye. Is wajah se ab naye kanoon ban rahe hain aur legal challenges bhi aa rahe hain.
Congress mein toh lagbhag half a dozen se zyada bills aa gaye hain jismein industry ke 'galat kaam' ko control karne ki baat hai. Aur states bhi peeche nahi hain, Nevada ne toh Kalshi ki operations rok di hain kyunki unka kehna hai ki yeh illegal gambling hai. Arizona jaise states bhi same action le rahe hain, elections par illegal betting ko lekar.
Aur insider trading ke scandals ne toh aag mein ghee daal diya hai. Aisi khabrein aa rahi hain ki kuch logon ko military assaults ke baare mein pehle se pata tha. Aur toh aur, kuch geopolitical events par bhi suspicious trading patterns dikhe hain. Federal prosecutors ab insider trading ki investigation kar rahe hain.
Platforms jaise Kalshi aur Polymarket bol rahi hain ki unke paas insider trading ke khilaaf internal policies hain aur woh federally regulated exchanges hain. CFTC ke Chairman Mike Selig bhi platforms ke saath hain aur keh rahe hain ki states apni limits cross kar rahe hain. CFTC khud prediction markets ke liye naye rules bana raha hai, jo year-end tak final ho sakte hain.
Experts keh rahe hain ki abhi kaafi mushkil time hai. Jaise crypto ka future define hua tha, waise hi prediction markets ka bhi hoga. Lekin abhi ke legal aur legislative challenges is industry ka future pakka decide karenge.