Whalesbook
Central mein hai CFTC, yeh bhai log USA ki commodity market ko control karte hain. Ab inka kehna hai ki prediction markets aur event contracts toh inke purview mein aate hain, kisi state ke nahi. Isliye, inhone ek court order nikaal kar Arizona, Connecticut aur Illinois jaise states ko Kalshi par koi bhi criminal case karne se rok diya hai.
CFTC ke Chairman, Michael S. Selig ne toh saaf bol diya ki states ka yeh move "overreach" hai aur galat precedent banayega. Congress bhi hamesha se chahti hai ki aise financial instruments par ek hi jagah se regulation ho, alag alag states se nahi.
CFTC ka logic yeh hai ki yeh "event contracts" basically "swaps" hain, jo unke Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) ke under aate hain. Matlab, pura control ab federal level par hi rahega, state gambling laws yahan nahi lagenge.
Aur yeh Kalshi bhi kam nahi hai! CFTC se regulated hone ke baad bhi, yeh company March 2026 mein $22 Billion ki valuation par funding utha li hai, woh bhi Coatue Management jaise bade investor se. Sirf ek hafte mein $1 Billion se zyada ka volume trade ho raha hai. Socho, 2030 tak global prediction markets $1 Trillion tak jaa sakte hain!
Is space mein Polymarket jaisi companies bhi hain, jinhone bhi badi funding (Intercontinental Exchange se $8 Billion valuation par) uthai hai. Kalshi fiat currency use karta hai, toh Polymarket crypto par chalta hai.
Par bhai, sab itna bhi seedha nahi hai. Pichli court rulings mein third circuit ne toh CFTC ka side liya tha, par Ninth circuit ka decision alag hai. Supreme Court tak baat jaa sakti hai. Upar se, insider trading aur market manipulation ke risks bhi hain. SEC bhi nazar rakh raha hai, kahin yeh securities toh nahi? Ek nationwide class action lawsuit bhi filed hai jo Kalshi par state gambling laws todne ka aarop laga rahi hai.
Chairman Selig chahte hain ki innovation ko rokna nahi chahiye, par regulation bhi zaroori hai. Isliye, CFTC ek naya framework bana raha hai, jismein public se comments liye jayenge ki kya contracts allowed hone chahiye aur kya nahi. Toh ek taraf states ko rok rahe hain, doosri taraf khud rules bana rahe hain. Dekhte hain aage kya hota hai is prediction market ke liye!