Whalesbook
Is poori scene ka sabse bada reason ye hai ki 2021 se 2026 ke beech, lagbhag 300 IPOs mein Offer-for-Sale (OFS) ka option tha. Aur toh aur, 68 IPOs toh poori tarah OFS wale hi the! Isse selling shareholders ko seedha ₹1.76 lakh crore mil gaye. Lekin ab kya hua? In 68 companies ka combined market cap listing ke time se lagbhag ₹95,000 crore gir gaya hai. Matlab average har company ka ₹1,400 crore ka loss! Ye saaf dikhata hai ki listing ke time jo bhi jumps ya achi baatein thi, woh asliyat mein company ko mehnga bech kar nikal jaane ka tareeka tha.
Aur valuations ka toh kya hi kehna! Ye OFS wale IPOs jab aaye the, tab P/E ratio average 57x chal raha tha, jabki Nifty 50 toh sirf 20-30x ke aas paas tha. Kuch companies jaise Vedant Fashions aur C.E. Info Systems toh IPO ke time 100x P/E ke bhi paar thi! Abhi bhi kuch ka P/E high hai, par pehle se kam ho gaya hai. For example, C.E. Info Systems ka P/E ab 34.64x hai, aur Vedant Fashions ka 22.63x. Dusri taraf, CE Info Systems ka P/E (48.03x TTM) uske industry average P/E (22.77x) se kaafi zyada hai. Kotak Institutional Equities bhi note kar raha hai ki ab investors fundamentals strong wali companies aur reasonable valuations dekh rahe hain, na ki sirf liquidity aur high growth ki kahaniyan.
Is structure mein sabse badi flaw ye hai ki jab 100% OFS ho, toh company ke growth ya debt repayment ke liye koi naya paisa nahi aata. Ye toh bas owners ka paisa nikalne ka tareeka hua. Isse public investors ko future mein problems face karni pad sakti hain. Dekho toh sahi, AGS Transact Technologies ka P/E toh negative (-0.18x) hai, aur uska current market cap utna bhi nahi jitna selling shareholders ne kama liya tha! Ye serious business issues dikhata hai. Reports keh rahi hain ki 2013 se OFS, total IPO amount ka lagbhag 68% raha hai. Is trend se lagta hai promoters aur PE funds bas apna paisa jald se jald nikalna chahte hain, company ke long-term future se unhe zyada matlab nahi.
Ab jab market mein correction aa gaya hai, toh investors bhi zyada careful ho gaye hain. Ab woh sirf OFS wale ya mehenge IPOs nahi kharidenge. Retail aur institutional dono hi investors ab company ka business model, funds kaise use honge, aur unke fundamentals kitne strong hain, yeh sab cheezein dekh rahe hain. Analysts expect kar rahe hain ki future mein IPOs mein companies ko apna plan, predictable earnings, aur solid balance sheets dikhane padenge. Ab IPO ka success sirf exit strategy par nahi, balki company ke actual growth aur value create karne ki ability par depend karega. Ye IPO market ko zyada sustainable banayega, hopefully.