Whalesbook
Yeh Hua Kaise?
Pichle saalon mein toh IPOs mein paisa lagana matlab instant returns ka chance. Par ab investors ko sirf future ka promise nahi chahiye. Unko company ka asli profit, strong balance sheet, aur yeh clear chahiye ki unka paisa kahan use hoga.
FY25 mein hi listing gains 30% se kam ho kar sirf 8% reh gaye the, aur ab toh market dips mein yeh -7% bhi gir gaye hain! Bade naam jaise Pine Labs, HDB Financial Services, Physicswallah, aur JSW Cement bhi apne IPO price se kaafi neeche chal rahe hain. Yeh dikhata hai ki market ab bahut selective ho gaya hai, aur high valuations wale IPOs ko bilkul pasand nahi kar raha.
Why the Big Shift?
Iska sabse bada reason hai IPOs ki high pricing. Kai companies ne apne IPOs ko itna overvalued rakha tha ki ab investors ko woh sahi nahi lag raha. Future earnings ka koi clear roadmap nahi tha, bas hype pe chal rahe the. Owners aur private equity firms ka woh time gaya jab woh bade price mang sakte the. Ab company ke fundamentals, yaani asli paisa aur profit, zyada important hai brand name se.
Upupar se global problems bhi investors ko pareshan kar rahi hain. Global conflicts, oil prices ka upar jaana, aur apne Indian Rupee ka ₹91-₹93 per US dollar tak girna (early 2026 mein), yeh sab import ko mehnga kar rahe hain aur foreign investors ka interest bhi kam kar sakte hain. Higher interest rates bhi companies ka borrowing cost badha rahe hain aur future profits ki current value kam kar rahe hain.
Future Kya Kehta Hai?
Abhi bhi companies listing kar rahi hain. FY27 mein lagbhag ₹1.75 lakh crore raise karne ka plan hai, jo FY26 ke record ₹1.78 lakh crore ke aas paas hai. Experts bol rahe hain ki FY27 ka pehla half thoda upar-neeche ho sakta hai global aur economic changes ki wajah se. Par FY27 ka second half recovery dikha sakta hai, jab Indian institutions se paisa aayega aur companies profits dikhayengi.
Market ab asli profits dekhega, sirf investor sentiment pe nahi chalega. Global problems agar badhi toh companies ke profit pe asar pad sakta hai. Par India ki economy fundamentally strong hai, toh achhe fundamentals wali companies mein careful investors ko chance mil sakta hai.