Whalesbook
Asal mein ho kya raha hai? 2026 mein ab tak 19 mainboard IPOs aaye hain, jinhone milakar ₹19,000 crore raise kiye hain. Lekin stock market mein entry ke baad inka average listing gain -1.3% hai. Matlab, logo ka paisa kam ho raha hai! Pata hai, pichle saalon mein yeh gain 10% (2025 mein) aur 30% (2024 mein) tak tha. Agar aap state-owned company Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL) ko chhod dein, jiska listing gain 77% tha, toh average loss -5.7% ho jaata hai. BSE IPO Index bhi 2.4% negative mein hai, jo dikhata hai ki overall market bhi correction mein hai. Sensex aur Nifty bhi is saal 7%-8% gir chuke hain.
Is sab ka reason kya hai? Global market mein jo gadbad chal rahi hai na, uska asar seedha yahan pad raha hai. Duniya bhar mein jo tensions badh rahi hain, jaise US-Israel-Iran ka conflict, usse oil prices 10-13% badh gayi hain. Brent crude $80-82 tak pahunch gaya hai. Isse energy market aur supply chain mein problem ho rahi hai. Global food prices bhi 6% tak badh sakte hain. Is global instability ki wajah se emerging markets, India jaise, currency pressure aur tight financial conditions face kar rahe hain. BSE Sensex mein bhi ek din mein 1,143 points ka bada drop dekha gaya tha.
Is mahol mein, Indian IPOs ko tough time mil raha hai. BCCL (listing at 77% premium) aur Omnitech Engineering (listing discount ke baad 50% gain) jaise kuch exceptions hain, lekin baaki struggle kar rahe hain. Shree Ram Twistex, jo cotton yarn banata hai, toh apne issue price se 50% neeche gir gaya hai, listing 29.4% discount par hui thi. Innovision ka stock bhi listing ke baad 39% gira hai. Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions toh listing par hi 18% toot gaya. Fractal Analytics bhi, AI focus hone ke bawajood, 2.7% discount par list hua. GSP Crop Science aur Sai Parenteral's jaise companies ne 2-4% ka chhota listing gain dikhaya, par woh bhi market weakness mein gayab ho gaya.
Ab naye listings ke liye kya risks hain? High volume aur weak investor sentiment ki wajah se oversupply ho gaya hai. Shree Ram Twistex aur Clean Max jaise companies ne dikhaya ki listing discount ke baad bhi unka performance kharab hai. Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) ka debt-to-equity ratio 2.07x hai, jo peers ke 0.4x-0.9x se kaafi zyada hai. Fractal Analytics ka valuation 65.6x P/E hai FY25 earnings par, jo market ke ~22.35x se bahut upar hai. Isliye growth dikhana bahut zaroori hai. Kuch hi companies achha kar rahi hain, baki market ki systemic problems face kar rahi hain. Sedemac Mechatronics ne toh Offer for Sale kiya tha, matlab IPO se aaya paisa company ke kaam nahi aaya. Investors ab bahut selective ho gaye hain.
Aage kya lagta hai? Analysts keh rahe hain ki investors abhi bhi caution rakhenge. Global risks aur inflation ki wajah se risk aversion high rahega. Future IPOs ka performance unhi companies par depend karega jinka fundamentals strong hai, profit dikhta hai, valuation reasonable hai aur growth clear hai. Jab tak global market theek nahi hota aur tensions kam nahi hoti, tab tak investors quality par zyada focus karenge.