Whalesbook
Listing toh theek-thaak rahi nahi, ab sabki nazar company ke valuation par hai. Jab share apne IPO price se neeche khulta hai na, toh sabse pehle yahi sawaal uthta hai ki kya company ko zyada valuation par list kiya gaya tha, jo market mein fit nahi baith raha.
Asal mein, Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) Ltd ke shares National Stock Exchange (NSE) par Rs 200 par trade karna shuru kiya, jo IPO price band ke lower end se 5.66% kam tha. Ye Rs 440 crore ka IPO tha, jo March 24-27 tak chala tha aur 3.23 times subscribe hua tha. Anchor investors se listing se pehle hi Rs 60 crore mil gaye the. Listing ke baad company ki market cap lagbhag Rs 2,019.26 crore ho gayi. Ye thandi response market mein chal rahi caution ko dikhata hai, jahan FY26 mein IPOs ne average sirf 8% ka gain diya hai. So, thoda dhyan rakhna hoga.
Ab valuation ki baat karte hain. Company ka IPO price Rs 212 (upper band) ke hisaab se tha, matlab FY25 ki estimated earnings ka 36.1 times aur FY26 ki estimated earnings ka 16.9 times. Ye multiples bade players ke comparison mein kaafi high lag rahe hain. Jaise, KRBL Ltd, jo rice business mein hai, woh lagbhag 10x P/E par trade karta hai. LT Foods 19-20x par aur Sarveshwar Foods ka P/E bhi generally kam hai. Amir Chand ka IPO pricing yeh batata hai ki future mein bahut badi growth ki umeed hai, aur yahan koi galti ki gunjaish nahi hai. Basically, risk zyada hai.
Company export-dependent basmati rice business mein hai, aur zyadatar sales Middle East ko hoti hain. Wahan chal rahi geopolitical tensions ek risk hai. Ho sakta hai ki Saudi Arabia aur UAE jaisi countries se demand badhne se Iran ko hone wale exports mein kami cover ho jaaye, lekin logistical issues aur payment delays working capital ko affect kar sakte hain. Company ne strategy banayi hai ki woh FMCG staples mein bhi diversify karein, jo ek potential backup ho sakta hai. FMCG sector recover kar raha hai aur 2026 mein high single-digit volume growth ki projections hain, jismein urban aur rural demand wapas aa rahi hai. Lekin, FMCG valuations par bhi inflation aur wider market concerns ka pressure hai, toh wahan bhi kuch khaas nahi hai.
Ab challenges ki baat karein toh, Rs 2,019.26 crore ki post-listing market cap ke saath, Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) Ltd, LT Foods (Rs 13,000 crore se upar) aur KRBL Ltd (Rs 6,500 crore se upar) jaise bade players se kaafi chhota hai. Ye chhota scale competitive edge ko kam kar sakta hai. FY25 mein export revenue bhi kam hui thi, jo core business mein issues bata raha hai. Aur haan, India mein agriculture sector growth Q2 FY26 mein sirf 3.5% rahi, jo 5-year average 4.4% se kam hai. Ye sab factors aur high IPO valuation milakar, ye sawaal uthate hain ki company ke paas mistakes karne ke liye kitni jagah hai. Stock market mein jab risk zyada ho toh sambhal kar chalna chahiye, bhaiyo!