Whalesbook
Toh scene yeh hai ki US ne April 20 se CAPE portal launch karke yeh duty refund ka process start kar diya hai. Supreme Court ki ruling ke baad yeh tariffs, jo 50% tak ja sakti thi, invalid ho gayi. Potential refund pool $12 billion ka hai, jo bahut bada amount hai. Lekin yahan pakad hai! India wale exporters seedha claim nahi kar sakte. Claim toh sirf US importers aur brokers kar sakte hain jinne duty pay ki thi. Is wajah se Indian exporters ko apne US ke buyers ke saath baith kar deal karni padegi, ya toh paisa wapas maango, ya prices adjust karwao. Yeh sab buyers ki marzi aur contracts par depend karega, toh paisa wapas milega ya nahi, yeh abhi uncertainty hai.
Waise, abhi ka trade environment pehle se kaafi badla hua hai. February 2026 mein ek trade deal hui thi, jiske baad India ne US goods par tariffs 18% tak kar di hai. Pehle yeh rates 19% se 30% tak thi alag countries ke liye. Isse India, Vietnam aur Bangladesh jaise competitors ke saamne ab competitive ho gaya hai. Yeh ek acchi baat hai export ke liye.
Yeh jo refund ka scene hai, isse sabse zyada affected sectors hain. Jaise ki Textiles aur Apparel, jinka refund $4 billion ke aas paas hai. Gems and Jewellery ke liye $2 billion ka refund hai, jahan pehle tariffs se kaafi nuksaan hua tha. Engineering goods aur Chemicals mein bhi $4 billion aur $2 billion ka refund mil sakta hai. Seafood exports bhi pehle affect hue the, par ab baaki markets se help mil rahi hai. Interesting baat yeh hai ki China ab India ka sabse bada trading partner ban gaya hai FY 25-26 mein, US ko piche chhod kar.
Asli risk exporters ke liye yeh hai ki paisa seedha nahi mil raha. Buyers control mein hain, aur unki goodwill par sab kuch depend karta hai. Jin exporters ne pehle market mein baney rehne ke liye discounts diye the, unko woh paisa wapas milna mushkil hai. Contract mein kya terms the, woh dekha jayega. Yeh poora refund process time le raha hai, jisse exporters ke working capital par bhi pressure aa raha hai. Aur refund kaise distribute hoga, is par jhagde bhi ho sakte hain.
Analysts ka kehna hai ki jo naye 18% wale tariffs hain, unse trade mein stability aayegi aur GDP ko bhi thoda boost milega. India ki overall growth toh strong dikh rahi hai, par yeh duty refund kaise exporters tak pahunchega, yeh dekhna hoga. Buyers ke saath negotiation ka game abhi chalega.