Whalesbook
US Tariff Ka Tension Aur Mercosur Ka Big Move
Dekho, scene aisa hai ki US se jo tariffs lag rahe hain na, uski wajah se Mercosur ke liye traditional partners pe bharosa karna risky ho gaya hai. Isliye, Brazil ki leadership mein ye log ab India aur UAE se dosti badha rahe hain. Main goal? Export opportunities badhana aur kisi ek market pe double dependenece kam karna.
India Aur UAE Se Naye Deals
Is blokc ne India ke saath jo 2009 se Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) hai, usko aur strong karne ki baat shuru kar di hai. Aur UAE ke saath toh Free Trade Agreement (FTA) ki talks almost 80% done hain. Ye sab isliye ho raha hai taaki global market mein aur better connect ho sakein. Aur ek aur badi khabar yeh hai ki EU ke saath jo deal hai, woh bhi lagbhag 25 years ki negotiations ke baad finally May 1, 2026 se provisional lagoo ho sakti hai. Isse ek bada free trade area banega.
Emerging Markets Ka Kamaal
India aur UAE ko isliye choose kiya gaya kyunki ye markets bahut tezi se grow kar rahe hain. India ki economy 2026 tak 5.9% se lekar 7.1% tak grow kar sakti hai. Agar sab theek raha toh 2026 tak dono countries ke beech trade $20 billion aur 2030 tak $30 billion tak pahunch sakta hai. UAE bhi 2026 mein 5% se 5.6% grow karega. March 2026 mein Brazil ne UAE ko poultry, gold, iron ore export kiya tha, aur UAE se refined petroleum import kiya tha. Toh, ye deals growth ke liye solid hain.
US Trade Ki Uncertainty
Upar se, US ke saath Brazil ka trade relationship thoda shaky chal raha hai. US ke tariffs predict karna mushkil hai. Brazil ke exports pe currently average 10% tak tariffs lagte hain. Aur steel pe toh Section 232 ke under aur bhi zyada. Tohfa yeh hai ki July 2025 mein 50% tak tariffs badhane ka announcement hua hai jo August 2025 se apply ho jayega. Is politics aur protectionism ki wajah se Brazil ko naye markets explore karne pad rahe hain, jaise Mexico, Canada, aur India. China toh pehle se hi Brazil ka sabse bada trading partner hai.
Kya Risks Hain?
Lekin har cheez mein risk toh hota hi hai. US-Brazil trade mein ye jo volatility hai, woh Brazil ke coffee, orange juice, beef jaise exports ko impact kar sakti hai. Aur Mercosur ke andar bhi kuch internal issues hain, jaise tariff harmonization aur non-tariff barriers. India ki economy bhi global shocks se affect ho sakti hai, jaise oil prices badhna. Aur EU-Mercosur deal ko bhi European Court of Justice aur farmers ke virodh ki wajah se delays face karne pad sakte hain.
Future Kya Bolta Hai?
Toh overall, Mercosur ka India aur UAE ki taraf move karna yeh dikhata hai ki woh US jaise partners se hone wali uncertainties se bachna chahte hain. EU deal ka progress bhi ek achha foundation de raha hai. Brazil ki strategy yeh hai ki US se baat bhi karte raho aur dusri taraf apne exports ko diversify bhi karo. Is se bloc ko global trade mein survive karne aur grow karne mein help milegi.