Whalesbook
### Intel's Sell-Off Driven by Forward Guidance
Intel shares took a huge hit, dropping over 17% on January 23, 2026. The main reason was the chip giant's weak first-quarter 2026 revenue and earnings forecast, which didn't meet analyst expectations. Management guided for Q1 2026 revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with the midpoint falling short of the $12.5 billion consensus estimate. Furthermore, Intel projected it would break even on adjusted earnings per share, a stark contrast to the $0.05 per share anticipated by analysts. This gloomy outlook, coupled with warnings of ongoing supply chain challenges and manufacturing problems, overshadowed the company's better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results. Despite beating Q4 revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, the market reacted negatively to the forward guidance, intensifying doubts about Intel's ability to meet demand and regain market share. The company's Data Center and AI division demonstrated resilience, posting a 9% year-over-year revenue increase, but this was offset by a 7% decline in sales from the Client Computing Group. The market is closely watching Intel's efforts to transform into a competitive foundry operator, a strategy that faces significant hurdles against established players like TSMC.
### Asian Markets Face Yen Headwinds and Tariff Uncertainty
Across Asia, equity markets broadly declined on Monday, January 26, 2026. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 1.68% to 52,943 points, extending recent losses as the Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar. The dollar slipped to 154.26 yen from higher levels seen last week, a move attributed to signals from officials in both Japan and the U.S. indicating a readiness to intervene in currency markets to support the yen [Source A]. A stronger yen typically diminishes the value of overseas earnings for Japanese exporters, putting pressure on companies like Toyota Motor Corp., whose shares fell 3.2% [Source A]. Elsewhere in the region, South Korea's Kospi dipped 0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng inched down 0.1%, and Shanghai Composite managed a marginal gain of 0.1% [Source A]. Futures for U.S. stock indices also pointed lower, reflecting persistent unease over U.S. tariff policies and potential trade actions, such as threats of tariffs on Canadian goods [Source A, 23, 38]. The global economic outlook remains cautious, with projected growth steady at 3.3% for 2026, heavily influenced by the IT sector and AI investments, but also burdened by rising trade tensions and protectionism.
### Federal Reserve Policy and Commodity Markets
In the United States, market expectations lean towards the Federal Reserve holding its short-term interest rate steady at its upcoming meeting. The benchmark federal funds rate currently stands at 3.75%, with projections indicating a potential long-term trend around 3.25% for 2026. Meanwhile, precious metals continued their ascent as investors sought out safe-haven assets amidst global economic uncertainties. Gold prices gained 2%, nearing $5,100 an ounce, and silver jumped 6.4% to about $108 per ounce [Source A]. Benchmark U.S. crude oil futures saw a slight increase, trading at $61.09 a barrel, while Brent crude edged up to $65.10 a barrel [Source A].