Whalesbook
Okay, toh kya chal raha hai India aur US ke trade talks mein? Basically, Washington D.C. mein Indian delegates aur US officials mil rahe hain April 20-22 tak taaki ek proposed trade deal ko dobara negotiate kar sakein. Yeh meetings bahut important hain kyunki US ke naye tariff policies ne poori game hi change kardi hai. Jo deal February mein hui thi, jisme dono desh tariffs kam karne wale the aur India 500 billion dollars ka US ka samaan import karne wala tha, usme ab bade changes karne padenge.
Pata hai yeh renegotiation kyun ho rahi hai? Main reason toh February 20, 2026 ko US Supreme Court ki ek ruling hai, jisne International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) ke under lagaye gaye tariffs ko cancel kar diya. Uske baad, February 24, 2026 ko US administration ne turant ek temporary 10% global import duty laga di, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 ke rules ke according. Yeh nayi duty 150 days tak chalegi aur purani duties ko replace karegi. Iska seedha impact yeh hai ki US ab Indian goods par apne tariffs 50% se ghatakar 18% karne ke waade se peeche hat sakta hai.
Aur ek zabardast twist yeh hai ki India ke trade mein bhi ek bada shift aaya hai. Fiscal year 2025-26 ke liye, China ab India ka sabse bada trading partner ban gaya hai, US ko pichhadte hue! China ke saath India ka total trade 151.1 billion dollars tak pahunch gaya hai, jisme India ka trade deficit China ke saath 112.6 billion dollars ho gaya hai. Meanwhile, India aur US ke beech trade surplus kam hokar sirf 34.41 billion dollars reh gaya hai, haalanki India se US ko export thoda badha, lekin US se imports tezi se badhe.
US ab trade ko sirf economic fayde ke liye nahi, balki geopolitical tool ke taur par istemal kar raha hai. Upar se, US Trade Representative (USTR) toh India par Section 301 investigations bhi kar raha hai, jisme India ki manufacturing capacity aur forced labour ke ilzaam hain. India ne yeh saare ilzaam khariz kar diye hain aur kaha hai ki yeh sab galat hai.
Toh abhi kya risks hain? US ke yeh unilaterally (apne man se) lagaye gaye tariffs trade deal ko unstable bana rahe hain. Pata nahi yeh tariffs kab tak rahenge aur unke exact terms kya honge. India ka China se badhta trade deficit, aur US ke naye policy shifts India ko ek complicated geopolitical situation mein daal rahe hain. USTR ki investigations toh alag se tension hain, jo BTA talks se alag hain.
Aage kya hoga? April ki talks ka main goal yahi hai ki naye US tariff system ke hisaab se deal ko adjust kiya jaa sake. Poori BTA toh abhi bhi aim hai, par abhi focus hoga ki existing plan ko current US trade policy ke context mein kaise fit karein. Iski success puri tarah depend karti hai ki US administration kitni certainty deta hai aur dono countries China ke saath India ke badhte trade importance ko kaise manage karti hain.