Whalesbook
Ab suno, yeh India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) toh chal raha hai, lekin ek bada rule aa raha hai EU se jisko bolte hain CBAM - Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Simple bhasa mein, yeh log check karenge ki tum jo goods export kar rahe ho, usme kitna carbon nikalta hai. Agar India ki apni domestic Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) ko EU ne CBAM ke barabar nahi mana, toh Indian exporters ko fayda hone ki bajaye nuksan ho sakta hai. Yeh koi choti baat nahi, yeh trade deal ka future decide karega.
Yeh CBAM ka reporting phase khatam ho gaya hai aur January 2026 se yeh paisa vasool karna shuru kar denge. Iske wajah se EU ke buyers abhi se hi hamare exporters se bol rahe hain ki aapke product mein kitna carbon hai, uske hisaab se price decide hoga. Steel aur aluminium jaisi industries pe iska sabse zyada asar dikh raha hai, kyunki inki production mein zyada carbon nikalta hai.
Pehle toh yeh samjho ki India mein steel banane mein kitna carbon nikalta hai. Hamare yahan per tonne crude steel banane mein 2.1 se 2.8 tonnes CO2 nikalta hai, jabki EU mein yeh sirf 1.37 tonnes hai. Aluminium mein bhi same story hai, India mein 10-14 tonnes CO2 per tonne nikalta hai, wahan EU mein yeh bahut kam hai, mostly hydro power ki wajah se. Ab India ka jo CCTS hai, agar EU Article 9 ke hisab se use equivalent nahi manta, toh exporters ko asli CBAM levy bharni padegi. Agar verified emissions ke hisab se bole toh yeh lagbhag €65-70 per tonne ho sakta hai steel pe, aur agar default EU values lagaye toh €250-300 per tonne tak ja sakta hai! Woh bhi tab jab CBAM WTO rules ke hisab se sahi hai ya nahi, is par bhi sawaal uth rahe hain.
Sabse bada risk yeh hai ki EU, India ki CCTS ko reject kar de ya usko pura maan ne se inkar kar de. Hamare high-emission production methods ke karan hum pehle se hi loss mein hain. Agar CCTS bhi kaam nahi aaya toh aur bhi nuksan hoga. Choti companies (SMEs) ke liye toh data collect karna aur verify karna aur bhi mushkil hai. Is uncertainty ke karan Indian exporters ko apna price 15-22% tak kam karna pad sakta hai EU market mein tikne ke liye. Matlab, profit margins kam ho jayenge aur market share bhi ja sakta hai.
Analysts bol rahe hain ki 2026 se 2034 tak, Indian steel exports ka profit US$60-165 per metric ton tak kam ho sakta hai CBAM ki wajah se. Agar yeh problem solve nahi hui toh India ki GDP par bhi thoda impact pad sakta hai. Isliye, Indian exporters ko abhi se hi low-carbon production par focus karna hoga aur emissions tracking ko improve karna hoga. India-EU FTA tabhi successful hoga jab climate policy aur trade ek saath chalega aur India ki CCTS, CBAM liabilities ko handle kar paayegi.