Whalesbook
Okay, toh India aur EAEU (Russia wala group) ke beech trade badhane ki baat chal rahi hai. Next meeting June 2026 mein Moscow mein hogi. India chahta hai ki 2030 tak dono ke beech trade $100 billion tak pahunch jaye. Ye sab isliye kyunki duniya mein economic situation thodi uncertain hai, aur India apne exports ko diversify karna chahta hai. August 2025 mein Terms of Reference sign ho gaye hain, aur ab focus hai Indian businesses, MSMEs, kisaanon, aur machheron ke liye market access badhane par.
Ab sabse badi tension kya hai? Trade deficit. Fiscal year 2025 mein India aur EAEU ke beech ye gap lagbhag $59 billion ka tha. India Russia ko sirf $4.88 billion ka maal bechta hai FY25 mein, jabki Russia se $63.84 billion ka crude oil import karta hai. Matlab, 80% tak toh sirf energy imports hain. India ko food, pharma, textiles, aur machinery bechne ka chance hai, par uske liye ye structural issues solve karne padenge.
Ye negotiations ek complex global scene mein ho rahi hain. Russia par sanctions ke karan, Russia aur China ka trade $245 billion tak pahunch gaya hai 2024 mein. India bhi alag alag partners ke saath deal kar raha hai, jaise January 2026 mein EU ke saath ek bada FTA sign hua. EAEU mein Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus, aur Kyrgyzstan hain, jinka combined GDP $6.5 trillion hai. Lekin, EAEU ka customs union structure services trade ko include karne mein problem create kar raha hai, jo India chahta hai. India ne pehle bhi Iran, Vietnam, Singapore, Serbia ke saath FTAs kiye hain. Russia ke saath trade 2022 ke baad se badha hai, mainly discounted crude oil ke karan, par isse deficit aur badh gaya.
Abhi jo ambitious targets hain, unke liye kuch bade roadblocks hain. India ne 65 se zyada non-tariff barriers (NTBs) identify kiye hain jo exports ko rok rahe hain. Yeh barriers marine, agricultural products, electronics, automotive, aur pharma sector mein hain. Jaise ki complicated registration process, market access ki limits, aur Russian/European standards se related regulations. Ye dekhna hoga ki Russia in barriers ko kitna kam karta hai, especially jab unki economy sanctions se adapt kar rahi hai. EAEU ke customs union ki wajah se services aur investment ko alag deals se hi deal karna padega. India gold aur precious metals jaise sensitive sectors ko bhi early talks se bahar rakh raha hai, jo ek practical lekin slow approach ho sakta hai. Aur haan, Western countries India ke Russia ke saath trade ties par nazar rakhe hue hain, jisse US jaise partners ki bhi nazar aa sakti hai.
Aage kya hoga? Main focus NTBs ko resolve karne aur goods FTA ko aage badhane par hai. Local currencies mein trade karne aur worker movement ke liye bhi baat chal rahi hai. Ye sab dikhata hai ki economic ties ko gehra karne ki commitment hai. Lekin wo $100 billion ka target achieve karna tabhi hoga jab structural challenges, deep-rooted trade deficit, aur Russia dwara NTBs kam karne mein practical steps liye jayenge.