Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki, ICICI Securities ne Star Health ke share ko 'Outperform' rating de di aur target price ko ₹570 se badha kar ₹644 kar diya. Is upgrade ke baad toh stock mein aag lag gayi, seedha upar bhag gaya!
Analyst isliye khush hain kyunki FY26 mein company ka normalized net profit 49% badha hai, aur combined operating ratio bhi 230 basis points sudhar gaya. Retail business mein bhi 37% ka solid growth dekha gaya, aur company ne apne almost 80% portfolio ko re-price bhi kar liya hai FY27 ke tak.
Lekin dhyan se suno, yahan ek bada sawaal hai - valuation ka! Stock abhi apne earnings ke 55 times se bhi zyada par trade kar raha hai (trailing P/E ratio 39.1x se 55.5x ke beech mein). Matlab investors yahan se extreme growth ki umeed laga rahe hain. ICICI Securities khud FY28 earnings ke hisab se 22 times ka multiple expect kar rahe hain, jo current valuation se kaafi kam hai. Jabki competitors jaise ICICI Lombard (31.6x P/E) aur Go Digit (51.7x P/E) itne mahange nahi hain.
Is high valuation ko justify karna mushkil ho sakta hai, especially jab medical inflation 14% saalana chal raha hai aur competition bhi badh raha hai. Agar claims badhe toh profits pe pressure aa sakta hai. Aur agar company ka combined ratio 100% ke upar chala gaya, toh investors ki tension badh jayegi.
Waise, future outlook toh acha lag raha hai. Motilal Oswal jaise experts ko lagta hai ki Star Health retail segment mein apni position maintain rakhega aur profit after tax 32% annual growth karega FY28 tak. India ka health insurance market bhi kaafi tezi se badh raha hai, jo positive baat hai. Aur company ka solvency ratio 205% bhi accha support de raha hai.