Whalesbook
Prabhudas Lilladher ne Voltas Limited ko 'HOLD' rating pe giraya hai aur target price ₹1,423 se kam karke ₹1,308 kar diya hai. Unka kehna hai ki Unitary Cooling Products (UCP) ke EBIT margins bohot tight ho gaye hain. FY26 mein yeh 3.2% tak ja sakte hain, jo FY25 ke 8.4% se kaafi kam hai. Yeh sab ho raha hai badhti commodity prices aur currency ke girne ki wajah se. Company branding aur marketing mein bhi paisa laga rahi hai, jisne pressure aur badha diya hai. Management ka kehna hai ki woh price hike aur cost cutting se yeh pressure manage karenge, par currency aur commodity ke levels ko dekhte hue thoda uncertainty hai. Sector mein bhi same problems chal rahi hain, jisse EBITDA margins 9.5% tak aa sakte hain Q4 FY26 mein.
Ab baat karte hain stock ke price ki. Voltas Room Air Conditioner (RAC) market mein toh leader hai, sabse aage chal raha hai lagbhag 5.1% market share se. April-May 2026 mein toh sales bhi kaafi achi rahi summer demand ke karan. FY26 mein 2.25 million RAC units beche gaye hain aur prices bhi 5-10% badhaye gaye hain, aur 2-3% extra raw material cost ke liye. Lekin, stock ka valuation bahut zyada hai. TTM P/E 85x se 106x ke beech mein hai, jabki Blue Star ka 64-74x, Havells ka 37-54x, aur sector ka median 30.52x hai. Stock price abhi ₹1,270 ke aas paas hai, aur iska profit FY26 mein ₹370 Crore ho gaya tha jo FY25 mein ₹834 Crore tha. Sales bhi recent quarter mein 13.2% gir gayi thi. Pichle paanch saal mein operating profit growth bhi sirf 7.74% annual raha hai.
Par wohi, company sirf ACs pe dependent nahi hai. Unka Electro-Mechanical Projects and Services (EMPS) division achi growth dikha raha hai. Data centers, electronics manufacturing, industrial infra jaise sectors mein order book ₹6,200 Crore se zyada hai March 31, 2026 tak. UAE aur Saudi Arabia mein bhi projects chal rahe hain. Aur Voltbek, jo home appliances JV hai, woh bhi comeback kar raha hai. Refrigerator mein 6.2% aur washing machine mein 8.6% market share le liya hai. FY25 mein losses kam ho gaye hain aur revenue 39.5% badh gaya hai. Gross margins 20% ke upar chale gaye hain.
Lekin risk bhi hain. Price hikes pe zyada depend rehna thoda risky ho sakta hai, kahin customers na chhod dein. MEP business mein bade projects mein execution ka risk hota hai, especially international projects mein. Aur yeh sector macroeconomic changes ke liye sensitive hai, jaise weather ya real estate slow down. Current high valuation ke saath earnings mein girawat dekh kar lagta hai ki market shayad zyada hopeful hai recovery ko lekar aur cost pressures ko nazarandaaz kar raha hai.
Aage dekha jaye toh analysts ko revenue, EBITDA aur PAT mein achi CAGR ki ummeed hai FY26-28E ke liye (19.2%, 44.7%, 60.0%). Par, Prabhudas Lilladher ne FY27E/FY28E ke earnings ko 24%/13% tak kam kar diya hai margin pressure aur slow plant ramp-ups ke karan. Toh overall sentiment cautious hai, jismein company ki market position aur diversification toh hai, par cost management aur competition ke challenges bhi hain.