Whalesbook
Q4 Mein EBITDA Ka Dhamaka!
Arre yaar, Vedanta Q4 results mein toh kamaal dikhane wala hai. Analysts ka kehna hai ki company ka EBITDA pichhle saal ke muqable 50% se 60% tak badh sakta hai. Iske peeche sabse bada reason hai Aluminium, Zinc aur Silver ke prices ka tezi se badhna aur company ki operational efficiency. Nuvama jaise experts ko 55% tak ka jump dikh raha hai, jisme Zinc aur Aluminium ka contribution bahut accha rahega.
Company ka power division bhi behtar kar raha hai, aur steel segment bhi profits mein aane ki ummeed hai. Vedanta ka target toh FY26 tak $6 billion se zyada ka annual EBITDA kamana hai, jo ek record hoga.
Kahan Se Aa Rahi Hai Yeh Tezi?
Vedanta ka Aluminium business bahut accha perform kar raha hai, prices badh rahe hain. Company ka plan hai ki FY28 tak woh Aluminium production costs mein duniya ke sabse neeche wale decile mein aa jaye. Hindustan Zinc toh India mein king hai hi, 75% se zyada market share ke saath, aur world ka doosra sabse bada integrated Zinc producer bhi hai.
Risks Aur Challenges Kya Hain?
Abhi sab kuch acha lag raha hai, par kuch cheezein dhyan rakhne wali hain. Ek toh input costs, especially bijli (power) aur alumina ke prices badh rahe hain, jisse Aluminium segment ke profit margins kam ho sakte hain. Global market mein bhi tension chal rahi hai Middle East ko lekar, jisse supply chain mein dikkat aa sakti hai aur prices upar neeche ho sakte hain. Vedanta par debt bhi hai, debt-to-equity ratio 2.49 hai, par achi baat yeh hai ki net debt to EBITDA ratio sudhar kar 2.0x ho gaya hai FY25 mein.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Baaki bade players jaise Glencore aur BHP ke saamne Vedanta scale mein chhoti ho sakti hai, par margin ke mamle mein company ne FY25 mein 36% ka industry-leading EBITDA margin dikhaya hai. Analysts ne Vedanta ke stock ko 'Strong Buy' rating di hui hai, aur average price target ₹857.85 ke aas pas hai, jo abhi ke current price se kaafi zyada hai. Kuch analysts ke targets ₹510 se ₹960 tak hain, matlab sabki rai thodi alag hai, par overall positive view hai.
Company ne future ke liye bhi plans bana rakhi hain, jaise ki paanch alag entities mein demerger, jisse FY26 ke end tak value unlock hone ki ummeed hai.