UltraTech Cement: Dolat Capital ne 'Reduce' kaha, Q3 strong hone ke baad bhi, ₹13,142 ka target set

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AuthorKavya Nair|Published at:
UltraTech Cement: Dolat Capital ne 'Reduce' kaha, Q3 strong hone ke baad bhi, ₹13,142 ka target set
Overview

Dolat Capital ki Q3 FY26 update UltraTech Cement ke liye mazboot performance dikhaati hai, operating metrics forecast se behtar hain. Brokerage FY28 tak robust growth predict karta hai. Lekin, Dolat Capital ko lagta hai ki stock prices mein ye sab positives already reflect ho gaye hain, isliye 'Reduce' rating maintain ki hai aur target ₹13,142 rakha hai.

Growth Outlook Rehna Hai Robust

Brokerage FY25–28E mein healthy growth trajectory expect karta hai, jisme revenue, EBITDA, aur adjusted profit after tax (PAT) 12.3%, 25.1%, aur 31.9% ke Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) se grow karenge. Yeh surge improve hone wale volumes aur steady price trends se propelled hoga. Volume growth FY26E mein significant 14.4% estimate kiya gaya hai, jiske baad FY27E mein 8.5% aur FY28E mein 9.3% rahega, jabki realizations FY26E mein 2.4%, FY27E mein 1.0%, aur FY28E mein 1.0% ki zyada modest pace se badhne ka projection hai.

Margin Expansion Ki Umeed

EBITDA per tonne FY25 mein ₹ 924 aur Q3 FY26 quarter mein ₹ 1,007 se badhkar FY26E mein ₹ 1,104, FY27E mein ₹ 1,226, aur FY28E mein ₹ 1,334 tak pahunchne ki ummeed hai. Profitability mein yeh upward trend company ke liye strengthening margin visibility underscore karta hai.

Valuation Concerns Positives Par Bhari Padenge

In favourable projections ke bawajood, Dolat Capital ke analysis se pata chalta hai ki UltraTech Cement ki current market price ne in anticipated positives ko lagbhag incorporate kar liya hai, jisse significant upside potential cap ho gaya hai. Natijatan, brokerage ne stock par apni 'Reduce' rating ko reaffirm kiya hai. Revised target price ₹13,142 par set kiya gaya hai. Dolat Capital dwara is target price ke liye employ kiya gaya valuation framework 16 times consolidated FY28E Enterprise Value to EBITDA par based hai, jisme 50% FY28E Capital Work-in-Progress (CWIP) aur Star Cement mein stake ko one times uske price-to-book value par augment kiya gaya hai.

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