Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo aur behno, Triveni Turbine ki latest Q4 FY26 ki khabar aa gayi hai. Sales toh lagbhag 26.3% uchhal kar ₹680 crore par pahunch gayi, jo ki ekdum zabardast number hai. Lekin, profit mein utni tezi nahi dikhi, sirf 8.5% ka jump laga aur yeh ₹101.9 crore par aakar ruk gaya. Asal gadbad EBITDA margin mein hui hai, jo pichhle saal ke 22.4% se gir kar ab sirf 18.8% reh gaya hai. Matlab, company ne zyada goods beche, par har sale par kam profit kamaya.
Ek achhi khabar ye hai ki board ne 200% ka final dividend recommend kiya hai, matlab ₹2 per share. Shareholders ko kuch toh relief milega.
Ab valuation ki baat karein toh, company ka P/E ratio lagbhag 53.30x se 56.40x hai, jo industry average (47.10x) aur engineering sector (30.29x) se zyada lag raha hai. BHEL aur Siemens Energy jaise players ke comparison mein yeh thoda alag hai.
Aise margin pressure ki problem Triveni Turbine mein nayi nahi hai. Pichhle kuch reports mein bhi dekha gaya tha ki sales mix change hone se ya bade orders par kam margin milne se profit kam ho raha tha. Aur upar se, global mein bhi thoda tension hai, jaise West Asia conflict chal raha hai, jisse supply chains aur energy costs par asar pad raha hai. India mein bhi manufacturing growth thoda slow hua hai.
Analysts ki rai mili-juli hai. Kuch log target ₹730 tak de rahe hain, matlab potential upside dikh raha hai. Par kai analysts ne earnings estimates kam kar diye hain aur stock ko 'sell' ya 'reduce' karne ki salah di hai. High P/E ratio yeh dikhata hai ki market ko company se kaafi expectations hain, par yeh margin ki problem aur current economic situation mein execution risk bhi bada hai. Analysts ka fair value estimate lagbhag ₹622-₹625 ke aas-paas hai. Toh, aage ka performance unke cost control aur margin stable karne ki ability par depend karega.