Tata Steel Share Price: Q4 Mein Profit Ka Forecast, Par Yeh Risk Samajh Lo!

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AuthorKavya Nair|Published at:
Tata Steel Share Price: Q4 Mein Profit Ka Forecast, Par Yeh Risk Samajh Lo!
Overview

Arre bhaiyo aur beheno, Tata Steel ke MD T.V. Narendran ne kaha hai ki March waale quarter (Q4) mein margins badhne aur steel prices upar jaane ki kaafi ummeed hai. Matlab, company ko lagta hai sab theek ho jayega. Lekin, rukna! Kuch bade worries bhi hain jo is outlook par sawal utha rahe hain.

Toh bhaiyo, Tata Steel ke MD T.V. Narendran ka kehna hai ki March tak matlab Q4 mein, Indian realisations mein ₹2,200 per tonne ka jump aane wala hai. Ye numbers kaafi acche lag rahe hain, kyuki lagta hai steel prices ab bottom out ho chuke hain. Infrastructure aur auto sector se demand bhi solid hai, jo company ke liye achha signal hai.

Par, yahan ek bada 'but' hai. Coking coal, jo steel banane ka main ingredient hai aur jiska kharcha blast furnace ka 50% se zyada hota hai, uske prices mein badi gadbad chal rahi hai. Australia se supply mein problems aa rahi hain (weather ke kaaran, ya transport mein), jisse prices bahut upar-neeche ho rahe hain. Ye volatility company ke profit targets ko udaan bharne se rok sakti hai, chahe company kitni bhi smart buying kar le.

Aur ek tension hai: bahar se saste daam mein steel aa raha hai. Kuch countries jo India ke saath trade agreements mein hain, wahan se toh nil duty par steel aa raha hai, aur yeh import 62% tak ho gaya hai! US mein steel par jo tariffs lage hain, usse bhi Asia ka excess steel India ki taraf aa sakta hai, jisse Indian prices par pressure padega. Sach toh yeh hai ki FY26 mein India net steel importer ban gaya hai kyuki international prices kam hain. Government ne trade safeguards ko 2 saal aur badha diya hai, par nazron ko tikaye rakhna hoga.

Ab valuation ki baat karein toh, Tata Steel ka P/E ratio abhi lagbhag 25.53 ke aas-paas hai. Iske muqable mein JSW Steel ka P/E 36.61 se 67.4 tak hai, aur SAIL ka 23.45 se 33.23 hai. Tata Steel ka stock pichhle ek saal mein 55.91% tak bhaga hai, jo market se bahut behtar performance hai. Analyst bhi khush hain, jaise InCred Equities ne ise 'Add' rating di hai aur target price ₹224 set kiya hai.

Lekin, sab kuch itna chamakdar nahi hai. Coking coal ka supply unpredictable hai Australia se, jo cost badha sakta hai. Aur yeh sasta import toh ek bada danger hai jo domestic prices ko neeche kheench sakta hai. Fir ek Competition Commission of India (CCI) ka probe bhi chal raha hai steel companies par, jisme Tata Steel bhi hai. Aur yaad rakho, pehle S&P ne 2020 mein leverage badhne ke karan rating down ki thi, toh debt levels par nazar rakhna bhi zaroori hai.

Toh overall, Q4 mein aane wali tezi ki ummeed toh hai, par yeh coal prices aur import wala tension company ke liye asli challenge banega.

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