Whalesbook
Asal mein, India mein demand kaafi strong rahi, khaas kar automotive sector se. Aur Kalinganagar mein jo capacity badhai thi na, uska bhi fayda hua. Company ne sirf India mein hi 6.19 million tonnes ka delivery volume kiya, jo last year se 10.5% zyada hai! Automotive aur special products division se toh lagbhag 1 million tonnes aa gaye. Indian market toh waise bhi governments ke infra plans aur sustained demand ki wajah se solid lag raha hai.
Lekin Europe mein scene thoda alag hai. Wahan pe Tata Steel Netherlands ka volume stable raha (1.7 million tonnes), par UK mein toh 17% gir gaya aur sirf 0.52 million tonnes raha. Ye sab wahan ki economy slow hone, energy price shocks aur Middle East/Ukraine ki wajah se geopolitical instability ke karan ho raha hai.
Overall dekhne toh, India aur Europe milakar company ka consolidated volume 5.3% badhkar 8.75 million tonnes ho gaya hai. Global steel prices bhi lagbhag 3-5% badhein hain. Iska reason hai input costs (iron ore, coking coal) badhna aur shipping rates ka bdhaaw, jo Middle East tensions se affected hain. China ne bhi production kam kiya hai, aur India ka safeguard duty bhi prices ko support kar raha hai.
Ab sabse important baat – Tata Steel UK mein ek naya bada plan bana raha hai. Port Talbot mein £1.25 Billion laga kar ek electric arc furnace (EAF) banayenge. Ye 2027 ke end tak start hone ki umeed hai aur saal mein 3 million tonnes steel banega. Isse emissions 90% tak kam honge. UK government bhi isme £500 million support kar rahi hai. Ye sab green steel future ke liye ek bada step hai.
Current valuation ki baat karein toh, Tata Steel ka P/E 26.4x hai aur market cap lagbhag ₹2.3 Lakh Crore hai. Ye SAIL (P/E 22.9x, Market Cap ~₹65,000 Crore) se toh upar hai, aur JSW Steel (P/E 37.6x, Market Cap ~₹2 Lakh Crore) se thoda alag hai. Momentum indicators ke hisaab se, JSW aur SAIL zyada positive dikh rahe hain, jabki Tata Steel ka momentum indicator 58 ke aas paas hai, jo neutral ya thoda positive lag raha hai.
Par bhaiyon, risk bhi samajhna zaroori hai. Europe ki economy kaafi uncertain hai aur wahan ka exposure company ke liye problem ho sakta hai. Ye jo £1.25 Billion wala EAF project hai na UK mein, usme execution risk hai – matlab time ya budget se zyada lag sakta hai. Analyst log bhi mix hain – India ki performance aur green transition ko toh maan rahe hain, par UK project ko lekar thoda cautious hain. Price targets generally ₹220-₹240 ke beech mein hain.
Overall, India mein toh demand achhi hai aur government support bhi mil raha hai. Lekin Europe ki situation aur UK mein jo bada green steel project chal raha hai, usko manage karna company ke liye future mein bahut important hoga.