Whalesbook
SAIL Ka Q4 Ka Performance Kaisa Raha?
Yaar, Steel Authority of India (SAIL) ne FY26 ke Q4 mein solid results dikhaye hain. Company ka Net Selling Realization (NSR), matlab steel ka average selling price, pichhle quarter se 9% badhkar ₹57,898 per tonne ho gaya. Apne steel sales ka volume bhi 5% saal-dar-saal badha. Is price increase aur achhe operations ki wajah se, profit per tonne (EBITDA per tonne) bhi 5% zoom karke ₹8,279 ho gaya. Yeh numbers achhe hain, but aage ka picture thoda complex hai.
Analysts Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Prabhudas Lilladher jaise analysts toh ab SAIL ke liye FY27 aur FY28 ke EBITDA forecasts ko 20% tak badha rahe hain. Unko lagta hai ki domestic infrastructure spending ki wajah se company apna FY27 sales volume target 22.5 million tonnes tak pahunch legi. Ismein RINL integration se estimated 0.6 million tonnes bhi shamil hai.
Lekin Risk Kahan Hai? (Sabse Bada Tension)
Sabse bada tension hai coking coal ka. Yeh steel banane ke liye bahut important raw material hai. Iski price Q4FY26 mein ₹18,200 per tonne thi, jo ab April-May 2026 mein badhkar estimated ₹21,000 se ₹21,800 per tonne ho gayi hai. Yeh ~20% ka hike ek dum se margin par pressure daal sakta hai, aur steel prices se milne wale fayde ko khatam kar sakta hai. SAIL commodity steel par zyada focus karta hai, isliye global price swings ka risk rehta hai. Plus, crude oil ke high prices ki wajah se automotive aur construction sectors mein demand kam ho sakti hai. Tata Steel aur JSW Steel jaise competitors bhi apni capacity badha rahe hain, jisse pressure aur badhega. Historical data dekho toh SAIL ka stock raw material price volatility se kaafi related raha hai.
Analyst Target Aur Rating Kya Hai?
Iss sab risk ke bavajood, Prabhudas Lilladher ne SAIL par apna 'Accumulate' rating maintain kiya hai aur target price ko revise karke ₹209 kar diya hai. Yeh target March 2028 ke estimated Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple ke 5.5 times par based hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki agar coking coal costs high rahi aur demand kam hui toh future earnings par asar padega. Finally, SAIL kitna achhe se yeh external cost pressures manage karta hai aur volume growth maintain karta hai, yeh hi uska future decide karega.