Whalesbook
Yaar, NHPC ki financials abhi thodi gadbad lag rahi hain. Q3 mein profit toh 5.2% kam hokar ₹219 Crore ho gaya aur revenue bhi 2.9% gir gaya ₹2,220 Crore pe. Sabse Badi baat yeh hai ki EBITDA 79.2% toot gaya aur ₹210 Crore pe aa gaya, jisse margin bhi 44.4% se gir kar sirf 9.5% reh gaya. Isi wajah se, company soch rahi hai ki future mein jo cash aayega stations se, usko hi bech de. Iss plan ko fiscal year 2026-27 tak poora karne ka goal hai.
Company ne recently ₹8,000 Crore tak ka loan lene ka bhi approval de diya hai fiscal year 2026-27 ke liye. Funding ke options mein private placement bonds, term loans, aur bahari borrowing sab hain.
Aur haan, itni struggles ke baad bhi, company ne fiscal year 2025-26 ke liye 14% ka interim dividend announce kiya hai, matlab ₹1.40 per share.
Abhi NHPC ki market cap lagbhag ₹77,015 Crore hai. Iska P/E ratio 29.34 se 38.15 ke beech mein hai, jo ki iske competitors jaise NTPC Ltd. (P/E 15.5-22.54) aur Power Grid Corporation of India (P/E 17.61-18.74) se kaafi zyada lag raha hai. India mein hydropower sector important toh hai, par smaller projects mein competition aur policy challenges hain. Government chahti hai ki chote hydropower schemes ko revive karein, lagbhag 1.5 GW ke.
Finance ke hisaab se sabse badi chinta hai debt. September 2025 tak net debt ₹44,060 Crore tha, jisse Debt to EBITDA ratio 9.74 tak pahunch gaya tha, kabhi kabhi toh 5.14 times bhi. Yeh high debt earnings ko kaafi affect karta hai. Q3 mein EBITDA margin ka 44.4% se 9.5% tak girna profits par bada pressure dikhata hai. March 2026 mein toh stock ₹68.66 (52-week low) tak gir gaya tha, aur uss samay isko 'Strong Sell' rating mili thi, high debt aur low profits ki wajah se. Interest coverage abhi bhi theek hai, par badhta hua debt aur kam hote margins ek mushkil outlook de rahe hain.
Par interesting baat yeh hai ki analysts abhi bhi positive hain. Mostly 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur average 12-month target price ₹89.57 rakha hai. Kuch forecasts agle teen saal mein revenue aur operating income mein acchi growth bhi bata rahe hain. Lekin, company ke liye apna debt manage karna, operational challenges se deal karna, aur fundraising & monetization plans ko successful banana hi growth aur value goals achieve karne ki chaabi hogi.