Whalesbook
NALCO ka Toofani Performance!
National Aluminium Company (NALCO) ne fiscal year 2026 ko ekdum dhamakedar andaaz mein finish kiya hai. Company ne apne 40 saal ke history mein sabse tagda production aur sales number dikhaya hai. Bauxite ka transport 6.13% badha, calcined alumina production 11.16% upar gaya, aur aluminium cast metal production mein bhi 2.61% ki tezi aayi.
Total alumina sales toh 30.74% badh gayi aur aluminium metal sales bhi 2.82% badhi. Record bauxite excavation 77.01 lakh tonnes aur cast metal production 4.72 lakh tonnes raha. Aur sabse important, NALCO ne apni captive coal power plants ka use karke costs ko kaafi kam rakha, jisse margins bhi mast rahe.
NALCO Ka Valuation Kya Kehta Hai?
Apne zabardast performance ke chalte, NALCO ka market valuation bhi accha hai. Early April 2026 tak, NALCO ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio sirf 11.95 tha, aur market cap tha lagbhag ₹73,785 crore. Ye Vedanta (P/E 18.12-18.97) se kam aur Hindalco Industries (P/E around 12.82) ke aas paas hai. Poora non-ferrous metals sector toh 15.73 se 18.59 ke P/E par trade kar raha hai. Iska matlab NALCO apne competitors aur industry se thoda cheap mil raha hai, jo investors ke liye acchi baat ho sakti hai.
Global Aluminium Market Ka Scene
Global aluminium market mein 2026 mein supply kam padne ki ummeed hai, jiske chalte LME prices $2,700 se $3,000 per tonne tak ja sakti hain. China ki production limits, global capacity growth ka slow hona, aur energy transition ke liye badhti demand iske piche ke reasons hain. Lekin Goldman Sachs jaisi firms ka kehna hai ki prices $2,350 tak gir bhi sakti hain. Abhi April 2, 2026 ko prices $3,468.50 per tonne ke aas paas thi, jo geopolitical tensions ki wajah se aur bhi volatile ho sakti hain.
India Mein Aluminium Ki Demand Mast Hai
India mein toh aluminium ki demand zabardast hai. Saalaana 6.3%-7.2% tak badhne ka estimate hai 2030 tak. Infrastructure, railways, renewable energy projects, aur electric vehicles (EVs) ki wajah se ye demand aur badhegi.
Bearish View Bhi Hai, Bhai!
Lekin sab kuch itna bhi accha nahi hai. Kuch brokerages ne NALCO aur Hindalco dono ko downgrade kiya hai. Unka kehna hai ki future mein growth kam ho sakti hai aur aluminium prices bhi gir sakti hain. NALCO ki captive power acchi hai, par global prices giri toh profit kam ho sakta hai. Stock pichle saal 104% bhaga hai, par analysts ka kehna hai ki target prices mein koi bada change nahi hai, matlab ab zyada upar jaane ki ummeed kam hai. NALCO ka Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) 3.3x hai, jo thoda expensive lag raha hai.
Investors Kya Soch Rahe Hain?
Investors ka NALCO par mix reaction hai. Q3FY26 results ke baad FY27 EPS estimates ko ₹32.2 se badha kar ₹26 kiya gaya tha. Stock April 2025 ke low se 87% recover ho chuka hai. Lekin recent downgrade aur confusing analyst targets ko dekh kar thoda caution baratna padega. NALCO ka captive resources ka strategy accha hai, par global price fluctuations aur demand changes ko kaise handle karta hai, ye dekhna hoga.