Whalesbook
Dekho, L&T ne ye decision Middle East mein badhti hui geopolitical tensions ke karan liya hai. Wahaan se hi L&T kaafi kaam karta hai, aur ab wahaan chal rahe maslon ne supply chain mein gadbad kar di hai, cheezein mehngi ho gayi hain, aur shipping mein bhi der ho rahi hai, khaas kar Strait of Hormuz jaise important routes se.
Agar company ke Q4 FY26 results dekhein toh revenue 11% saal dar saal badha tha, energy sector aur IT services mein achha performance tha. Par haan, EBITDA margins 60 basis points kam ho gaye. Iska reason tha energy projects mein jyada kharche aur purane contracts ka khatm hona. Crude oil prices bhi 60% tak badh gaye hain, jisse L&T ke liye fuel, transport, aur logistics ka kharcha badh gaya hai.
Company try kar rahi hai ki ye badhe hue kharche clients se vasool le, lekin ismein time lag sakta hai, jisse FY27 ke pehle half mein margins par thoda pressure rehne ki ummeed hai. Baaki companies bhi aise hi supply chain problems se deal kar rahi hain.
Magar, L&T ki long-term strategy 'Lakshya 2031' bilkul track par hai. Is plan mein FY31 tak 10-12% order inflow CAGR aur 12-15% revenue CAGR ka target hai. Company ka order book bhi solid hai, March 2026 tak ₹7.40 lakh crore ka ho gaya tha, jo pichhle saal se 28% zyada hai. International order book bhi ₹3.6 lakh crore ka hai, jisme Saudi Arabia aur UAE ka bada stake hai. Jab tensions kam honge, tab wahaan rebuilding efforts se L&T ko fayda ho sakta hai.
Abhi L&T ka valuation dekha jaye toh P/E ratio 33-37x ke aas paas hai, jo FY27 ke liye adjust ki gayi guidance aur potential margin decline ko dekhte hue thoda zyada lag raha hai. Is valuation mein sharp rise ke baad kuch analysts caution dikha rahe hain. Kuch, jaise Jefferies (target ₹4,885) aur CLSA (target ₹4,842), ne 'Buy' rating rakhi hai, kyunki unhe long-term growth dikh raha hai. Lekin kuch ne ratings ko 'Neutral' ya 'Hold' kar diya hai aur price targets bhi kam kiye hain. UBS ne bhi price target kam kiya hai. Ye analysts Q4 ke performance aur FY27 mein order inflow momentum ko lekar bhi chintit hain.
Aage chal kar, L&T digital adoption, AI integration, aur data centers, green hydrogen, aur semiconductor design jaise naye areas mein bhi focus kar raha hai. Isse revenue diversify hoga aur profitability improve hogi, jo abhi ke margin pressures ko dekhte hue zaroori hai.
History mein jab bhi Middle East mein instability hui hai, L&T ke stock price mein girawat aayi hai, aur jab tensions kam hue hain, toh rally bhi dekhi gayi hai. Ab dekhte hain ki company is geopolitical situation ko kaise manage karti hai aur apne long-term growth agenda ko kaise aage badhati hai.