Whalesbook
Q4 FY26 Results mein Kajaria ka Jalwa!
Is quarter mein company ne volumes 11% badhae aur revenue 12% jump kar Rs 1,373 crore tak pahunch gaya. Sabse achhi baat ye hai ki EBITDA margin 19.2% ho gaya, jo ki pehle se kaafi behtar hai. Iska main reason Morbi tile cluster mein chal rahi problems hain, jisse organised players jaise Kajaria ko price badhane aur competitive scene ko control karne ka mauka mila.
Margin Sudhre, Par Kitne Time Tak?
Morbi mein gas ki mehengai aur supply ki kami ke chalte, wahan ke unorganized players ne apne rates 35-40% tak badha diye hain. Isse Kajaria Ceramics jaise structured companies ko fayda ho raha hai. Plus, Kajaria ke paas sirf gas par depend hone ke bajaye biofuel aur coal jaise fuel options bhi hain, jo ise Morbi walo se zyada stable banate hain. Lekin, company ka management bhi keh raha hai ki jab Morbi mein cheezein normal hongi, toh margins shayad 18-19% range mein settle ho sakte hain. Toh ye 19.2% ka number shayad temporary ho sakta hai.
Price Power aur Industry Ka Badlav
Kajaria ne alag alag regions mein prices badhae hain, jaise North mein 12-13% aur Morbi mein 16-17%. Demand par zyada asar nahi pada, kyunki tiles construction cost ka ek chhota hissa hain. Achhi baat ye hai ki industry mein bhi ab pricing discipline dikh raha hai, jo pehle cycles mein nahi tha. Isse future earnings outlook saaf ho sakta hai.
Valuation ka Tension?
Stock abhi FY28 ke estimated earnings ke 29x par trade kar raha hai. Iska matlab hai ki jo growth aage aane wali hai, woh abhi ke share price mein already include ho chuki hai. Ye valuation thoda high lag raha hai aur zyada room nahi chhodta agar kuch bhi gadbad hui. Somany Ceramics jaisi companies 35x par hain, aur Cera Sanitaryware 40x par. Kajaria ka TTM P/E toh 48x hai!
Management ka Confidence aur Future Plans
Company ne dividend Rs 6 per share aur buyback Rs 297 crore ka Rs 1,380 per share par announce kiya hai. Ye dikhata hai ki management ko apne stock par bharosa hai. Saath hi, company Srikalahasti plant mein 10 Million Square Meters ki capacity expand kar rahi hai, jisme Rs 210 crore lagane wale hain aur yeh FY27 tak ready ho jayega.
Risk Kya Hai?
Sabse bada risk ye hai ki Morbi cluster normal hone ke baad pricing power aur current margins kitne time tak tikenge. Fuel prices ka volatile rehna bhi ek concern hai. Aur haan, ye high P/E valuation thoda risky ho sakta hai agar growth slow hui toh.