Whalesbook
Yaar, Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) ka business toh ekdum dhamaakedar chalne wala tha. Unke Power T&D aur Buildings & Factories (B&F) segments mein revenue saal dar saal badhne ka estimate hai, jisme Power T&D ke liye 20-25% CAGR aur B&F ke liye 18-20% CAGR pakka hai. Ye sab energy transition, data centers aur bade housing projects ke demand se ho raha hai. Standalone order inflow bhi 26% CAGR se badha hai FY22 se FY25 tak. Water business mein bhi Jal Jeevan Mission ke under Q4FY26 mein ₹600 crore ke payments mile hain, aur government ne JJM 2.0 ke liye ₹8.69 lakh crore tak ka budget rakha hai 2028 tak, toh demand toh rahegi. Lekin, ek chiz wait kar rahi hai – abhi bhi ₹1,000 crore se zyada payments pending hain.
Global side pe, KPIL ka West Asia mein exposure sirf 10% orders ka hai, toh regional tensions se zyada risk nahi hai. Haan, Q4FY26 mein Power T&D revenue pe $20-30 million ka impact aa sakta hai supply issues se, par Saudi Aramco materials de raha hai toh Gas Pipeline projects safe hain. Lekin apne desh mein, Raipur aur Gandhinagar ke plants 80% capacity pe chal rahe hain gas supply ki problem ke karan. Ab ye log Low-Density Oil (LDO) try kar rahe hain fuel ke liye.
Sabse bada twist aaya hai Brazil se. Inki subsidiary Fasttel Engenharia S.A. ne March 6, 2026 ko judicial reorganization ke liye file kar diya hai. Matlab, debt ko restructure karne ka court-supervised process hai ye. KPIL abhi financial impact check kar raha hai aur provisions daalega. Ye tab hua jab KPIL ne July 2023 mein Fasttel mein baki 49% stake kharid kar ise totally own kar liya tha.
Analyst log Emkay Global ne 'Buy' rating de rakhi hai aur target ₹1,450 ka diya hai. Par agar valuation dekho toh KPIL ka P/E ratio lagbhag 22.9x hai, jo domestic peers PNC Infratech (7.3x) aur HG Infra Engineering (7.2x) se kaafi zyada hai, though Larsen & Toubro (30.85x) se kam hai. Overall Indian infra sector 7.0-7.5% grow karega FY26 mein. Analyst ke hisab se KPIL ka revenue growth 9.5% per annum hoga, par earnings growth 20.7% per annum pakda hai. Lekin, Fasttel ka restructuring, domestic plants ka full capacity na chalna, aur ₹1,000 crore se zyada pending payments investors ko thoda sochne pe majboor kar rahe hain. Plus, current valuation apne peers se zyada lag raha hai.