Whalesbook
To bhaiyo, KEI Industries ke production mein na, kuch hiccups aa gaye hain. Q4 mein revenue toh 19.3% tagda dikha, sala poore saal ka revenue bhi ₹34,763.96 crore ho gaya. Lekin asli picture toh volume growth mein hai, jo sirf 2% rahi. Aisa isliye ho raha hai kyunki company ke Rajasthan wale plants full capacity par chal rahe hain, matlab aur production ki jagah hi nahi hai. Aur toh aur, jo naya Sanand facility ban raha tha na, uska kaam bhi extend ho gaya hai, ab Q4FY27 mein start hoga. Iska matlab ye hai ki company demand poori karne mein thoda struggle kar rahi hai.
Aur Exports ka scene bhi theek nahi hai. March mein 10% gir gaye shipping mein problem ki wajah se. Ab naya route use karna pad raha hai, jismein freight charges zyada lagenge. Uff, ye logistics ka tension kam hone ka naam nahi le raha. Lekin company ka aim hai ki FY27 tak exports unke revenue ka 20% ban jaye, especially US market mein.
Ab, market toh grow kar raha hai, especially infrastructure mein toh demand hai hi. Lekin KEI khud apni capacity badhane mein peeche reh gayi. Jo 22.5% annual revenue growth ka target rakha hai na FY26-28 ke liye, woh ab thoda mushkil lag raha hai jab volume growth itni slow hai. Aur sabse badi baat, stock ka valuation! P/E ratio around 53-57x hai, jo industry average 29x se kaafi upar hai. Competitors jaise Polycab ka 42-52x aur Havells ka 46-59x hai, aur unke muqable KEI ka market share bhi kam hai (9%). Toh boss log soch rahe hain ki itni valuation justify kaise hogi jab kaam rukawat mein hai.
Isi wajah se, Prabhudas Lilladher ne 'BUY' se 'Accumulate' kar diya hai stock ko. Morgan Stanley bhi 'Overweight' se 'Equal Weight' par aa gaye, haalanki unhone target price ₹5,213 kar diya hai. Sabse badi chinta ye hai ki stock ka price 40 times FY28 earnings par chal raha hai, aur jab volume hi nahi badh raha toh ye kaise maintain hoga? Ye jo recent gains the na (~35%), woh shayad commodity prices ya currency ki wajah se the, na ki sales volume se. Sanand plant mein delay toh ye bata raha hai ki capacity ki problem temporary nahi hai, ye chalegi. Isse target growth rates par bhi risk hai.
Haan, future projections toh achi hain. Analysts expect kar rahe hain ki FY26 se FY28 tak revenue 22.5% aur EBITDA 24.1% se grow karega. Sanand plant start hone ke baad margins improve honge. FY27 ke liye EBITDA margin 10.5%-11% ka forecast hai. Prabhudas Lilladher ne target diya hai ₹5,660, aur Morgan Stanley ka ₹5,213 hai. Stock abhi ₹5,000-₹5,200 ke aas paas hi chal raha hai, toh zyada upside dikh nahi raha. Company ka ₹20,500 crore ka order book hai, jo future revenue ki visibility de raha hai, par ye current operational issues ko kaise handle karte hain, ye dekhna hoga.