Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki KEC International ne apna Q4 ka result nikala, aur number dekh ke investors thoda dar gaye. Jahaan revenue 7% kam hokar ₹6,390 Crore pe aa gaya, wahin net profit toh poora 28% gir gaya, ₹268 Crore se seedha ₹193 Crore ho gaya. Is wajah se share ka price bhi lagbhag 11% neeche aakar ₹487.65 ke aas paas band hua, jo ki 52-week low ke kareeb hai.
Is fall ke peeche sirf results hi nahi, Middle East mein chal rahi gadbad bhi hai. Wahaan ke sanctions aur supply chain mein rukawat ne company ke kaam ko aur mushkil bana diya hai. Pehle bhi is wajah se stock neeche gaya tha. Iske alawa, company ko execution mein dikkat aur labor ki kami bhi mehsoos ho rahi hai.
Ab brokers kya keh rahe hain? Thoda mix hai scene. Emkay Global ne toh rating ko 'BUY' se hata kar 'ADD' kar diya aur price target bhi poora 31% kam karke ₹600 kar diya hai, ₹875 se. Unko Middle East ki supply chain, labor ki kami, zyada debt aur working capital ki chinta hai.
Lekin Elara Securities abhi bhi 'BUY' par hai, haan, target thoda ghataya hai ₹700 kar diya hai ₹930 se. Unka kehna hai ki Middle East mein shipment delay se ₹3-4 Billion tak ka revenue nuksaan hua, lekin company FY27 tak 12-15% growth dikha rahi hai aur order inflows toh 110% badhe hain!
Sabse badi baat jo sabko umeed de rahi hai, woh hai company ka order book! Poora saal FY26 mein ₹25,280 Crore ke naye orders mile hain. Aur March 31, 2026 tak, total order book ₹36,267 Crore ka hai. Agar jo bids chal rahe hain unhe milayein toh yeh figure ₹40,000 Crore se bhi upar jaata hai! Yeh sab T&D (Transmission & Distribution) segment se aa raha hai, jiska share ab 68% ho gaya hai. Yeh bada backlog future ki revenue guarantee karta hai.
Risk ki baat karein toh haan, Middle East mein jo 20% orders hain, woh abhi bhi chinta ka vishay hain. Aur company par debt bhi hai, margins par bhi pressure hai aur input costs bhi badh rahe hain. Q4 mein EBITDA margins bhi 7.0% se ghat kar 7.8% ho gaye the. Competition mein L&T toh bahut badi hai, aur KPTL bhi iske aas paas hi hai valuation mein. Lekin KEC ke liye chote issues bhi bade dikhte hain.
Overall, abhi thoda short-term mein dikkat hai, lekin long-term outlook acha lag raha hai brokers ko. Kuch log ₹600 ka target de rahe hain, toh kuch ₹700 ka. Sabki nazar abhi Middle East situation theek hone aur company ke execution par rahegi.