Whalesbook
Input Costs Ka Pressure!
Dekho, Motilal Oswal ko lagta hai ki JK Cement par input costs ka pressure kaafi zyada hai. Petcoke ki prices mein around $20 per tonne ka increase hua hai, jisse costs mein ₹75-80 per tonne ka increment ho raha hai. Packaging costs bhi Q1 FY27 mein operational expenses ko aur badha sakti hain. Management green energy aur logistics se cost savings nikalne ki koshish kar rahi hai, par yeh badhti hui costs ko cover kar paayenge ya nahi, yeh abhi dekhna baaki hai.
Expansion Ke Bade Plans!
Costs ka pressure hone ke bawajood, JK Cement rukne wali nahi hai! Company ka plan hai ki medium term mein apne operations ko 50 mtpa se zyada expand kare. Target hai ki H1 FY28 tak 40 mtpa aur FY29 tak 45 mtpa tak pahunch jayein. Jaisalmer, Mudappur, aur Panna mein projects par kaam chal raha hai.
Debt Aur Leverage Ka Scene!
Itne bade expansion ke liye paisa toh chahiye na? FY26 se FY28 ke beech ₹90 billion tak ka capital expenditure expect kiya ja raha hai, jis se company ka net debt badh sakta hai. Estimates hain ki FY28 tak net debt ₹79 billion tak pahunch sakta hai. Is wajah se net-debt to EBITDA ratio bhi FY28 tak 2.5x ho sakta hai, jo pehle ka 2.0x ka target tha. Leverage ka yeh rise investors ke liye ek important point hai.
Brokerage Ka Latest View!
Yeh sab factors ko consider karte hue, Motilal Oswal ne FY27 aur FY28 ke liye EBITDA estimates ko 8% tak cut kar diya hai. Brokerage 17x FY28E EV/EBITDA par JK Cement ko value kar raha hai, jis se price target ghata kar ₹6,040 ho gaya hai (jo pehle ₹6,780 tha). Target cut aur cost concerns ke hone ke baad bhi, Motilal Oswal ne 'Buy' rating maintain ki hai, jo company ke expansion-driven growth par unka belief dikhata hai.