Whalesbook
Toh asli baat ye hai ki, FY18 mein jahan hum sirf ₹3,532 crore ka lithium import karte the, wahi ab FY26 ke pehle 11 mahine mein ye number badh kar ₹37,624.6 crore ho gaya hai. Matlab, seedha 10x jump! Ye sab ho raha hai kyunki log electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems, aur consumer electronics zyada use kar rahe hain. India mein EV sales 2025 tak lagbhag 2,02,000 units tak pahunchne wali hain, jo overall new light-duty vehicle sales ka 4% hai. Lekin, hamari global EV production share abhi bhi 1% se kam hai. Market experts keh rahe hain ki 2032 tak EV batteries ki demand 20 GWh se 200 GWh tak pahunch jayegi. Problem ye hai ki advanced battery cells banane ki hamari local capacity abhi bhi develop nahi hui hai, jiski wajah se demand aur supply mein bada gap aa gaya hai.
Sarkar ne toh kaafi schemes launch ki hain jaise ₹18,100 crore ka Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, ₹34,300 crore ka National Critical Mineral Mission, aur ₹1,500 crore ka Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme. Lekin bhai, kaam bahut slow chal raha hai. October 2025 tak, ACC PLI target capacity ka sirf 2.8% (1.4 GWh) hi commissioned ho payi hai, woh bhi sirf Ola Electric ne manage kiya hai. Aur toh aur, incentives claim karne ke liye jo domestic value addition chahiye, woh bhi abhi pura nahi hua hai. Matlab, ₹29 billion ke target par October 2025 tak zero incentives mile hain.
Is situation mein, Ola Electric, Reliance New Energy, aur Rajesh Exports jaise beneficiaries ne ek saal ka extension manga hai. Unka kehna hai ki supply chain mein problems aa rahi hain, especially China se equipment milne mein der ho rahi hai. Ola Electric ne toh apne expansion plans bhi 20 GWh se kam karke 5 GWh kar diye hain FY2029 tak. Rajesh Exports ne toh abhi land hi acquire kiya hai. Is wajah se, hum ab bhi import kiye hue lithium aur battery components par hi dependent hain, jisme China ka bada role hai.
Duniya bhar mein dekho toh India ka investment bahut kam hai. 2025-2026 mein India ne sirf $1.7 billion (global share 0.9%) invest kiya hai, jabki China $130.6 billion ( 71% ) ke saath aage hai. Europe aur US bhi kaafi invest kar rahe hain. Battery production mein toh China sabse aage hai, CATL aur BYD jaise companies 70% se zyada market share rakhti hain. South Korea ka bhi 15% share hai. Jab itni concentrated supply chain hoti hai, toh geopolitical risks, price fluctuations aur supply disruptions ka khatra badh jata hai. China toh 75-80% lithium refining bhi control karta hai.
Achi baat ye hai ki India mein Jammu & Kashmir mein 5.9 million tonnes lithium ke reserves mile hain, jo kafi zyada hain. Lekin, commercial extraction mein hurdles hain aur isme 4-7 saal lag sakte hain. Battery recycling ka sector bhi develop ho raha hai, jiska value 2030 tak ₹3.5 billion ho sakta hai. Abhi hum sirf 1% batteries recycle karte hain, par capacity 2030 tak 1,17,000 tonnes tak ja sakti hai, jo 2026 ke estimated 44,000 tonnes se zyada hai.
Sabse badi chinta ye hai ki hum imported crude oil ki tarah hi lithium, cobalt, aur nickel jaise critical minerals ke liye 100% import dependent ho jayenge. Jab hamari local manufacturing slow hai, toh import bill badhti jayegi aur China-linked supply chains par nirbharta humein global tensions aur price manipulation ke liye vulnerable bana degi. Yeh delays aur execution challenges dikha rahe hain ki hum EV goal achieve karne ke liye ready nahi hain. Agar humne local manufacturing nahi badhaya toh hamari energy transition goals ko bada jhatka lag sakta hai.