Whalesbook
Toh ye exports 43% kaise badh gaye? Sabse pehla reason hai apna Indian Rupee jo FY26 mein US Dollar ke muqable 11.4% kamzor ho gaya. Isse bahar maal bechna producers ke liye kaafi faydemand ho gaya, especially jab domestic market mein prices pehle se hi kam the.
Aur isme government ne bhi apna tadka lagaya. Kuch flat steel products par safeguard duty daal di gayi. Ye duty basically China jaise deshon se aane wale saste steel ko rokne ke liye hai, taaki Indian companies ko protection mile. Pehle saal ye duty 12% thi, jo baad mein 11.5% aur phir 11% ho jayegi. Ye policy 3 saal tak, matlab April 2028 tak lagu rahegi. Iska poora fayda Tata Steel aur JSW Steel jaise bade players ne uthaya aur international markets mein apna share badhaya.
Abhi lagta hai ki sab exports exports chal raha hai, par ye bhi dekho ki India ka steel production bhi 10.7% badh kar lagbhag 168.4 million tonnes tak pahunch gaya FY26 mein. Ye growth Tata Steel, JSW Steel, aur SAIL jaisi companies ne capacity badha kar achieve ki. Lekin ye production growth, domestic demand (7-8% growth, around 164 million tonnes) se thoda zyada tha. Isliye, factories ko full capacity par chalaane ke liye surplus steel ko export karna pada.
But hold on, har taraf sirf achhi khabar nahi hai. Kamzor Rupee ne export revenue toh badha diya, par coking coal aur scrap jaise zaruri imported raw materials ka kharcha bhi badha diya. Isse Tata Steel aur JSW Steel jaise companies ke profit margins par dabav aa sakta hai. Dusra point ye hai ki safeguard duty se short-term toh fayda hai, par ye dikhata hai ki companies competition se zyada trade protection par nirbhar ho rahi hain. Aur toh aur, sector ko energy transition ka bhi bada challenge face karna hai. Steel industry pollution ka ek bada source hai, aur green steel tech mein invest karna bahut mehnga hai. Valuation ki baat karein toh JSW Steel ka P/E ratio 47.4x aur Tata Steel ka 29.6x hai, jo kaafi high Expectations dikhata hai, jo badhte input costs ya global demand mein fluctuations se challenge ho sakta hai.
Aage dekhein toh 2026 mein global steel market thoda grow karne ki ummeed hai, infrastructure projects aur easy policies ki wajah se. India ka domestic market bhi strong rahega. Analysts bhi Indian steel companies ko lekar upbeat hain. Tata Steel ko 'Strong Buy' aur JSW Steel ko 'Moderate Buy' rating mili hui hai. Tata Steel ke price targets ₹161.6 se ₹262.5 tak ja rahe hain, aur JSW Steel ke ₹975 se ₹1,491 tak. Lekin, global overcapacity, geopolitical risks aur decarbonization jaise challenges ko bhi nazarandaaz nahi kar sakte.