Whalesbook
Dekho, India mein Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) industry ekdum dumdaar growth dikhane wali hai. Analysts predict kar rahe hain ki next few years mein yeh sector 20-30% CAGR se badhega. Iska reason hai government ka PLI scheme aur global companies ka 'China+1' strategy, jiski wajah se sab India mein manufacturing badha rahe hain. Electronics exports bhi ab third largest category ban gaye hain.
Ab yahaan par story thoda interesting hoti hai. Jabki sector ka outlook positive hai, stocks ka performance alag-alag chal raha hai. Sabse tagda player hai Syrma SGS Technology. HDFC Securities ne isko 'Buy' rating diya hai aur target price ₹920 rakha hai, expecting 29% revenue aur 44% profit CAGR from FY26-28. JPMorgan bhi isko 'Overweight' bol raha hai, target ₹1,050 tak. Unke hisaab se yeh EMS play karne ka sabse 'cleaner' tarika hai, kyunki inka business model stable hai aur woh high-margin components mein bhi jaa rahe hain. Syrma SGS ne Q3 FY26 mein bhi 45% revenue aur 107% net profit jump dikhaya hai, plus unhone Elcome ko acquire bhi kiya hai aur PCB manufacturing mein JVs bhi kiye hain.
Dusri taraf, Kaynes Technology aur Dixon Technologies jaise bade naam bhi hain. Kaynes Technology ka order book toh acha hai, par 2025 mein inka stock kaafi gira hai. Reason? High valuations aur earnings expectations miss karna. Dixon Technologies bhi 2025 mein pressure mein raha. Yahan thoda Vivo ke JV mein delay aur smartphone market saturation ke concerns hain. Amber Enterprises bhi diversified hai, par uska P/E multiple kaafi high hai.
Valuations bhi ek bada topic hai. Jaise Kaynes Technology 57x se 98x P/E par trade kar raha hai, Syrma SGS 52x-71x par, Dixon 34x-65x par, aur Amber Enterprises toh 101x-162x tak. Jefferies ne Syrma ko 39x, Kaynes ko 65x, Dixon ko 70x, aur Amber ko 42x bataya hai. JPMorgan keh raha hai ki growth toh 20% se upar expect hai most players (Dixon ko chhod kar) through FY26-28, par itne high valuations ke liye companies ko 2026 mein clear profitability improvement dikhani hogi.
Par bhai, sab kuch itna bhi easy nahi hai. Kaynes Technology ka stock gira high valuations aur revenue forecasts revise hone ke karan, plus industrial segment mein slow growth. Dixon Technologies ko Vivo ke JV approval ka intezaar hai aur smartphone market bhi saturate ho rahi hai, jo medium-term growth ko affect kar sakta hai. Sabse bada risk hai imported components par dependance aur rising input costs. Haal hi mein India ke manufacturing PMI slowdown ne bhi yahi ishara kiya hai, jo margins ko daba sakta hai. Plus, companies jo backward integration aur naye capabilities mein paisa laga rahi hain, unka Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) filhal steady rah sakta hai jab tak utilization badhe.
Phir bhi, overall sector outlook positive hi lag raha hai. Motilal Oswal ko lagta hai ki covered companies ki revenue FY25-28 mein 30% badhegi. JPMorgan expect kar raha hai revenue growth 20% se zyada for most EMS companies through FY26-28. Syrma SGS toh sabko pasand aa raha hai apni strategy aur growth potential ke liye, par ab investors dekhenge ki baaki players kaise execute karte hain aur margins maintain karte hain industry changes aur economic pressures ke beech.