Whalesbook
Toh, is poori situation ke peeche ka main reason hai West Asia mein chal raha conflict. Iski wajah se na sirf fuel (jaise petcoke aur coal) ke rates sky-high ho gaye hain, balki packing ke liye jo polypropylene (PP) bags use hote hain, unki supply kam ho gayi aur prices lagbhag double ho gaye! Analysts ka kehna hai ki isse per tonne production cost ₹150 se ₹200 tak badh jayegi.
Iska seedha asar companies ki profitability par padega. Experts estimate kar rahe hain ki FY2027 mein per tonne operating profit 6–11% gir sakta hai, jo FY2026 mein estimated ₹900–950 tha, woh kam hokar ₹820–870 ho sakta hai.
Sabse badi problem ye hai ki companies ye badhe hue kharch customer par nahi daal pa rahi hain. Market mein itni overcapacity aur competition hai ki FY2027 mein prices sirf 2–4% hi badhne ki ummeed hai.
Par haan, construction sector mein demand abhi bhi solid hai. ICRA ko FY2027 mein 7-8% volume growth ki ummeed hai, thanks to government infra projects aur housing demand. Par global situations se koi bhi risk aa sakta hai.
Ab stocks ki performance dekhte hain. Bade players jaise UltraTech Cement, jinka market cap ₹3 trillion se upar hai aur P/E ratios 40-49 ke aas paas hain, woh thoda better position mein hain. Lekin ACC jaisi companies, jinka market cap ₹25 billion aur P/E 9.4 ke aas paas hai, unka stock pichhle saal 23.6% gira bhi hai. Over the past year, Ambuja Cement (-12.54%), ACC (-23.6%), Shree Cement (-23%), JK Cement (-23%), aur UltraTech Cement (-6%) sabne negative returns diye hain. Sirf Ramco Cement (1%) aur JK Cement (3.3%) ne thoda positive return dikhaya hai.
Analyst toh JK Cement par kaafi bullish hain, 82% se zyada log 'Buy' karne ko keh rahe hain. Valuations dekhe toh Shree Cement aur UltraTech Cement high P/E par trade kar rahe hain (around 46-63 and 40-49 respectively). Ambuja Cement (26-31) aur Ramco/JK Cement (35-44) thoda aache lag rahe hain valuation wise.
Overall, sector mein overcapacity pricing power ko kamzor kar rahi hai. Jo companies imported fuels par zyada depend karti hain, unhe geopolitical risk zyada hai. Aur PP bags ki shortage bhi ek badi problem hai. So, investors ko companies ke balance sheets check karne chahiye, khaas kar jinke upar debt zyada hai, kyuki current situation unke liye difficult ho sakti hai.