Whalesbook
Ab dekho, Hindalco ka Q3FY26 ka result ek side pe achha, doosri side pe bura picture dikha raha hai.
India mein toh apna aluminum aur copper business ne kamaal kar diya, record profitability hui hai, sab cost control mein hai. Lekin jo bahar, US mein Novelis hai na, woh plant mein aag lagne ki wajah se bahut suffer kar raha hai. Iska matlab hai ki India ka strong performance, Novelis ki problem ko sambhalne ki koshish kar raha hai. Consolidated operating income toh 13.9% badh kar ₹66,521 crore ho gaya, but EBITDA sirf 5.4% badh kar ₹7994 crore hua. Profitability dikhane wala margin, matlab EBITDA margin, 12.02% se 12.99% gir gaya, kyunki kharche bahut badh gaye hain. Stock abhi ₹908.7 ke aas paas hai aur analysts keh rahe hain 'Hold karo', target ₹934 ke kareeb hai.
Novelis ka toh pura scene hi bigad gaya hai!
Woh Oswego plant mein jo aag lagi thi na, uska impact ab pehle se double se bhi zyada aa raha hai. Company ne kaha hai ki cash flow par $1.3 se $1.6 billion tak ka impact padega, pehle toh yeh $550 se $650 million bol rahe the. Sirf is accident ki wajah se Q3 FY26 mein $160 million ka net loss hua hai aur shipments bhi 72 kilotonnes kam hui hain. Ab woh hot mill restart karne mein late ho rahe hain, late 2026 tak hi shayad ho payega. Insurance se paise milenge, around 70-80% tak, lekin abhi toh cash flow par bada pressure hai aur customers ko bhi problem ho rahi hai.
India ka performance ekdum solid hai!
Ek taraf Novelis ki mushkil, toh doosri taraf India ka performance ekdum solid hai. Apna aluminum upstream business ne records tode hain, cost cutting acchi hui hai. Copper segment bhi LME prices ki wajah se accha perform kar raha hai. Company India mein apni capacity bhi badha rahi hai, aluminum 1.3 MT se 1.7 MT aur copper 400 KT se 700 KT tak le jaane ka plan hai. FY27 se coal mine se bhi fayda milega, jisse kharche aur kam honge.
Valuation aur Peers ki baat
Debt ki baat karein toh Hindalco ka net debt to EBITDA ratio 1.73x hai, jo company ke 2.0x se niche rehne ke target se accha hai. Share ko dekhein toh FY28 ke earnings par yeh 12 guna aur EV/EBITDA par 7 guna lag raha hai. TTM P/E bhi 12.2x ke kareeb hai. Dusri companies jaise Vedanta ka TTM P/E 15x hai, NALCO ka 10.5x aur global player Alcoa ka 14x hai. Century Aluminum ka P/E 60x hai, jo kaafi high hai. Hindalco ka debt bhi abhi $8.42 billion ke aas paas hai.
Bear Case: Risk kya hai?
Sabse badi chinta Novelis se hi hai. Yeh jo disruption hai, $1.6 billion tak ka cash flow impact, yeh bahut bada hai. Kab tak sab theek hoga, yeh clear nahi hai. Upar se global aluminum prices mein bhi volatility hai. Pehle prices badh rahe the, ab thode kam ho gaye hain kyunki China mein Lunar New Year ke baad demand kam ho sakti hai. Tariffs aur supply chain risks bhi hain jo margins par pressure daal sakte hain. Novelis ka downtime Alcoa jaisi companies ke liye competitive advantage ban sakta hai.
Outlook aur Analysts ka kya kehna hai?
Aage kya? Dekhte hain Novelis kitni jaldi track par wapas aata hai aur global aluminum prices kaise rehte hain. Company ko umeed hai ki EBITDA sequential improve hoga kyunki shipments badhengi aur India margins stable rahenge. Insurance claims se cash flow improve hoga. India mein capacity badhana ek bada growth driver hai. HSBC jaise analysts ka 'Buy' rating hai aur target ₹1,240 diya hai, lekin baaki log abhi mixed hain. US mein Bay Minette expansion bhi important hai, jo H2 FY2027 mein aa raha hai.