Whalesbook
AMCA Program Mein Tension? Kya HAL Bahar Ho Jayega?
Yaar, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) ka share haalbhal 52-week low par gir gaya, intraday mein 3% tak ka loss dikhaya aur ₹3,580.10 ke level tak pahunch gaya. Ye sab rumors chal rahi hain ki shayad HAL ko Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program se alag kar diya jayega. Lekin, agar valuation ki baat karein toh HAL ka current market cap ₹2,45,444 Cr hai aur P/E 27.59x chal raha hai. Ye apne hi defense sector ke competitors jaise Bharat Electronics (BEL) jo 50x P/E par hai, Bharat Dynamics (BDL) jo 80x par hai, aur Data Patterns jo 70x par hai, unse kaafi discount par mil raha hai. Is saal HAL ka performance BSE Sensex se bhi kharab raha hai, jahan Sensex 13% gira, HAL 18% gir gaya.
LCA Mk1A Ke Engines Ka Bhi Chakkar Hai!
Sirf AMCA hi nahi, abhi LCA Mk1A program mein bhi engine ki supply ko lekar dikkat aa rahi hai. General Electric (GE) se engines late ho rahe hain. Haalbhal HAL ko sirf 5 engines mile hain, jabki 9 LCA Mk1A airframes tayyar hain aur unhe engines ka intezaar hai, jisme se 14 aircraft deliver hone ya test hone wale the. GE ne kaha hai ki 2026 mein 24 engines denge aur baad mein saalana 30 tak denge. Target hai ki 2032-33 tak 180 LCAs deliver kiye jaayen. Foreign engines par depend karna ek risk bana hua hai.
Par Order Book Toh Mast Hai!
Lekin tension mat lo, HAL ka future secure lag raha hai kyunki unke paas ₹2.3 trillion se zyada ka order book hai! Isse saalon tak revenue ki guarantee hai. Ismein LCA Mk1A, Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) 'Prachand', aur repair/overhaul (RoH) ke bade orders shamil hain, jisse saalana ₹20,000 crore tak aa sakte hain. India ke defense sector mein tez growth ho rahi hai, government ne FY27 ke liye ₹7.85 lakh crore ka budget rakha hai.
Phir Bhi Kuch Risks Toh Hain!
Analysts toh HAL par positive hain, jaise Nuvama ne 'Buy' rating ke saath ₹4,800 ka target diya hai, aur CLSA ne 'Outperform' rating ke saath ₹5,436 ka target. Motilal Oswal bhi valuation discount aur order book ko positive man rahe hain. Par kuch risks hain. AMCA se bahar hona future mein private sector ko chance de sakta hai. Government spending par depend karta hai. Engine supply jaise execution risks hain. Aur Russian partner ke saath SJ100 regional jet project mein sanctions ka issue bhi hai. Toh valuation discount in uncertainties ko reflect karta hai.