Whalesbook
Toh CLSA ke views sunte hain. Unhone HAL ko 'Outperform' rating di hai aur target set kiya hai ₹5,436 per share. Iska matlab hai ki abhi jahan share chal raha hai, wahan se lagbhag 38% aur upar jaane ki possibility hai. Ye report HAL ke liye bahut positive sign hai.
Valuation Ka Chakkar?
CLSA ka kehna hai ki HAL sector mein sabse 'cheapest pure-play defence stock' hai. Ab dekho, dusri badi companies jaise Bharat Dynamics (BDL) ka P/E ratio 78.38x hai aur Bharat Electronics (BEL) ka 53.62x. Lekin HAL ka P/E ratio 29.7x se 44.0x ke beech mein hai. Is hisaab se, HAL ka market cap lagbhag ₹2.64-2.76 trillion hai, jo ki valuations ke hisaab se achha lag raha hai. Par haan, bhoolna mat, February mein jab AMCA 1.0 program se exclusion ki khabar aayi thi, tab yeh share 6% tak gir gaya tha aur ₹4,213.90 pe aa gaya tha. Toh order book kitna bhi strong ho, program ki news se market mein fluctuation aa sakti hai.
Order Backlog Aur Sector Ka Zor
HAL ka order backlog toh bhai future ki guarantee hai, lagbhag 14 saal tak ka revenue yahan se aa jayega! Aur taaza khabar ye hai ki recently $3.6 billion ka helicopter deal bhi approve hua hai, jiska kaam FY27 se start hoga. CLSA ko umeed hai ki FY25-30 tak $33 billion ke naye orders milenge, aur FY27 tak toh order book $28 billion pe pahunch jayega. Aur yeh sab ho raha hai jab government defence spending badha rahi hai aur 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' pe zor de rahi hai. HAL toh 'Make-in-India' ka ekdum central player hai, jaise LCA Mk2 program ke liye GE F414 engine ki deal hui hai. Currently, company ka order book ₹2.3 trillion ke aas paas hai.
Risk Factor Kya Hai?
Ab thoda cautionary note bhi sun lo. Jaise bataya, February mein AMCA 1.0 program se bahar hona ek bada concern tha. CLSA keh raha hai ki HAL mass production stage ke liye eligible ho sakta hai, par starting mein exclusion se pata chalta hai ki strategy change ho sakti hai, aur private players jaise Tata aur L&T bhi aage aa rahe hain. Nirmal Bang jaisi firms ne kaha hai ki agle 3 quarters mein company ka execution dekho, aur ho sakta hai FY27 ke second half mein performance aur bhi strong ho. Phir woh GE engine supply mein delays ki wajah se Tejas deliveries mein problem ya Dubai mein Tejas crash aur baad mein HAL ke Tejas fleet ko technical check ke liye ground karna – yeh sab operational aur safety issues hain jo future orders aur investor confidence pe asar daal sakte hain. Kabhi kabhi stock ka P/E ratio uske 5-year average se bhi upar chala jaata hai, matlab agar execution slow raha toh shayad growth potential pehle se hi priced in ho chuka ho.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Chalo ab analysts kya keh rahe hain woh dekhte hain. Overall, majority analysts HAL par bullish hain. 25 mein se 21 analysts ne 'Buy' rating di hai. Average 1-year price target ₹5,790.90 hai, aur kuch toh ₹6,663.30 tak ka target bhi de rahe hain. CLSA ka ₹5,436 ka target ek important benchmark bana hua hai. Toh overall picture toh solid dikh rahi hai, bas execution aur program developments pe nazar rakhni hogi.