Whalesbook
Volume Toh Badha, Par Profit Mein Lag Gaye Kaante!
Dekho, Greenpanel Industries ne FY26 ki Q4 mein Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) volume mein 27.8% ka jabardast jump dikhaya, poora 130,000 cubic meters tak pahunch gaya! Ye sab India mein badhti hui demand ki wajah se hua, jo 29.5% upar gayi. Sab kuch lag raha tha ki company mast chalegi, par yahaan aa gayi asli mushkil.
Margin Kaise Squeeze Ho Gaye?
Asal mein, MDF margins gir kar sirf 9.2% reh gaye. Sabse bada reason hai chemical prices mein 40-45% ka jabardast spike aur Middle East ke tensions ki wajah se freight costs ka badhna. Ye chemical prices company ke raw material cost ka 40% hissa hain. Is sab se bachne ke liye, company ne 15% ka price hike bhi kiya, par wo poora impact cover nahi kar paya. Company ko EPCG scheme se bhi ₹62 million ka fayda hua tha, aur aage bhi ₹260 million milne ki ummeed hai, jo thoda support dega.
Geopolitical Tensions Ka Asar Aur Full Financials
Middle East mein jo tensions chal rahi hain na, usse crude oil mahanga ho raha hai, jiske karan freight charges double ho gaye hain aur transit time 30 din tak badh gaya hai. Chemical feedstocks bhi mahange ho gaye hain. Iska sidha asar company ke financials par dikha. FY26 mein company ne ₹29.13 crore ka net loss report kiya hai, jabki pichhle saal ₹72.11 crore ka profit tha. Q4 FY26 mein toh sirf ₹1.37 crore ka profit hua, jo pichhle saal ke ₹29.39 crore se bahut kam hai. Plywood segment ka revenue ₹13,268.57 lakh tha, jabki MDF se ₹1,40,668.30 lakh aaya.
Analysts Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Brokerage firms bhi situation ko dekh rahi hain. Zyadaatar ne 'BUY' rating to maintain rakhi hai, lekin price targets thode kam kar diye hain. Jaise, Prabhudas Lilladher ne target ko ₹370 se girakar ₹332 kar diya hai. Average target bhi ₹292.50 ke aas-paas hai, jo abhi ke prices se 44% zyada hai. Par ye sab future projections pe hai, current cost pressure ek bada risk hai jo management bhi maan raha hai. Isiliye, management FY27 ko lekar conservative hai aur koi formal guidance nahi di hai. Geopolitical uncertainty aur volatile input costs dikat de sakti hain.