Whalesbook
Kya Scene Hai Gravita India Ka?
Toh hua kya hai ki Gravita India ne Rashtriya Metal Industries (RMIL) ko ₹565 crore mein cash dekar kharid liya hai. Yeh deal unke liye bahut special hai kyunki isse woh lead ke alawa copper aur uske alloys mein bhi enter kar rahe hain. Yeh unke metals recycling ke poore portfolio ko next level par le jayega.
RMIL Ko Kyun Khareeda Aur Aage Kya?
RMIL, jo ki 1946 se copper aur uske alloys products bana rahi hai, woh Gravita ke liye ekdum perfect hai energy transition ke liye. Yeh deal lagbhag ₹800 crore ke enterprise value par hui hai, aur company ne iske liye apna internal paisa aur pehle se jama fund use kiya hai, matlab naya loan nahi liya! RMIL ka factory Gujarat mein hai aur woh saal mein 24,000 se 31,200 tonnes tak produce kar sakta hai. Abhi woh 50% capacity par chal raha hai, jise Gravita 65-70% tak le jaane ka plan kar rahi hai. Isse saal mein 50,000 metric tonnes tak ka extra production ho sakta hai. FY25 mein RMIL ka revenue ₹910 crore tha aur unka ROIC 14% tha. Gravita ko lagta hai ki scrap optimization aur better utilization se woh ROIC ko 25% tak le jayenge. Yeh move time pe hai kyunki electric vehicles (EVs) aur renewable energy ki demand bahut badh rahi hai.
Market Kya Bolti Hai?
Gravita India ki market cap abhi ₹12,400 crore ke aas-paas hai. Unka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio 32-33 ke beech mein hai, jo industry average 16.71 se kaafi upar hai. Iska matlab market ko future mein company se bahut growth ki umeed hai. Jain Resource Recycling ka P/E 65.75 aur Hindustan Copper ka 87.35 hai, jabki Hindalco ka 11.9x hai. Gravita ka Return on Equity (ROE) 16-21% aur ROCE 21-28% hai, jo dikhata hai ki company apna paisa acche se use kar rahi hai. Non-ferrous metals recycling ka sector bahut tezi se badh raha hai aur 2025 tak $236.92 billion tak pahunch sakta hai. India mein bhi copper ki demand badhne wali hai EVs aur energy transition ke chakkar mein.
Analyst Log Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Brokerage reports kaafi positive hain, jismein 'Strong Buy' rating di gayi hai. Unka average 12-month price target ₹2,146 se ₹2,385 tak hai, matlab stock mein 26-48% tak ka upside mil sakta hai. Pichle ek saal mein stock 8-10% gira hai, toh shayad yeh entry ka accha mauka ho sakta hai.
Par Ek Baat Toh Hai... (Bear Case)
Sab kuch accha lag raha hai, par kuch risks bhi hain. Sabse bada risk hai RMIL ko successfully integrate karna aur unki capacity ko 50% se upar le jaana. Agar yeh nahi hua toh valuation ka premium maintain karna mushkil ho sakta hai. Gravita ka P/E ratio 32-33 kaafi high hai, agar growth expectations poori nahi hui toh market mein correction aa sakta hai. Copper ka market bhi volatile ho sakta hai, supply aur demand ke issues aa sakte hain. Kuch analysts jaise MarketsMojo ne valuation ko dekh kar 'Hold' rating di hai. Aur yaad rahe, Gravita ka 88% revenue FY24 mein lead se hi aata tha, toh lead business mein koi gadbad hui toh woh dikh sakti hai.