Whalesbook
Aisa kya hua ki demand badhi par profit pe laga rok?
Dekho, Q3 FY26 mein na, Indian cement industry mein 6-7% tak volumes badhe hain. Yeh sab construction aur infra projects ki wajah se hua hai, matlab demand toh acchi pakdi hai. Lekin iske saath hi saath ek bada problem aa gaya hai - energy costs bohot mahangi ho gayi hain aur sequential basis pe realisations (matlab jo price mil raha tha) bhi thoda gira hai. Iski wajah se companyyon ke margins pe pressure aa gaya hai, par achhi baat yeh hai ki prices mein recovery dikh rahi hai.
Kuch companies ne toh kamaal kar diya! Jaise JK Cement ne 21% aur Star Cement ne 22% volume growth dikhaya, thanks to unki nayi capacities. UltraTech Cement ne bhi 15% growth report kiya. Lekin yeh sab karne mein cost badh gayi. Blended EBITDA per tonne 20% tak badha hai, lekin yeh operational efficiency se nahi, costs badhne se hua hai. UltraTech Cement ka market cap lagbhag ₹2.5 trillion hai aur woh 35x P/E pe trade kar raha hai, jo uske 5-year average se 20-25% upar hai.
Prices mein recovery, par costs ka bhi game hai
Acchi khabar yeh hai ki January mein na, pan-India cement prices 1.5-2% badhi hain. Matlab ₹15-20 per bag ka increase. Companyyon ne February mein bhi ₹10-15 per bag aur badhane ka plan kiya hai, taaki costs recover ho sakein. Lekin duniya mein pet-coke prices $121 per tonne ho gayi hain, jo pehle $100-105 thi. Yeh ek bada headwind hai jo margins ko daba sakta hai. JK Lakshmi Cement ka volume toh 6% gir gaya hai, jo dikhata hai ki sabka performance same nahi hai.
Kounsi company hai king aur kahan hai mauka?
UltraTech Cement apni scale aur cost leadership pe focus kar raha hai. Star Cement aur JK Cement ne volume mein achha kiya. Lekin Nuvoco Vistas ne toh dil jeet liya! Pichhle saal isko ₹61.4 crore ka loss tha, iss baar ₹49.1 crore ka profit hua hai. EBITDA toh 50% badh kar ₹386 crore ho gaya. Nuvoco FY27 tak 35 MTPA capacity banane wala hai aur debt kam karne ka target ₹3,500-4,000 crore rakha hai. Yeh sab 8.7x FY26E EV/EBITDA pe mil raha hai. Dusri taraf JK Cement ₹450 billion market cap aur 28x P/E pe hai.
Risk kya hai?
Sabse bada risk kya hai? Costs badhti ja rahi hain, especially energy aur pet-coke. Companies yeh cost consumers pe transfer kar paengi ya nahi, yeh dekhna hoga. UltraTech ka valuation high hai, toh zyada upar jaane ki jagah kam lag rahi hai. Nuvoco ka expansion plan bhi risky hai, aur debt management pe nazar rakhni hogi. JK Lakshmi Cement ka volumes kam hona bhi kuch regional problems ya competition dikha raha hai.
Aage ka outlook kya hai?
Overall, aage ka outlook positive lag raha hai. FY26 mein 5% volume growth aur FY27 mein bhi acchi expansion expected hai. Budget mein infra spending 12% badha hai, isse cement ko fayda hoga. Jo companies costs manage kar paengi aur volume gains ko sustainable margin improvement mein badal paengi, wohi aage chal kar kamaal karengi.