Whalesbook
Revenue Badha, Par Loss Ka Pressure Bhi Zyaada
Dekho, CUMI ne Q4 FY26 mein revenue toh 15.4% badha kar ₹13,832 crore kar liya, jo ki Abrasives, Ceramics aur Electrominerals segments se aaya hai. Lekin, bhai, numbers ka asli khel toh yahaan hai – quarter mein company ko ₹175.9 million ka Net Loss hua hai, jabki pichhle saal isi time ₹291.4 million ka profit tha. Earnings per share bhi gir kar ₹0.93 ka loss ho gaya ₹1.73 ke profit se. Ye sab kiska kamaal hai? Ye hai overseas subsidiaries ka, jaise Awuko, Foskor Zirconia aur VAW Russia, jahaan se lagataar nuksaan ho raha hai. Is wajah se EBITDA margins bhi 171 basis points neeche chale gaye hain. Ab company in loss-making units ko band karne ya restructure karne ka soch rahi hai.
Valuation Par Analysts Ki Chinta
Aur ek badi chinta hai valuation ki. CUMI ka stock P/E ratio par 41.2x se 101.9x tak trade kar raha hai FY27/28 estimates ke liye. Yeh toh apas ke competitors jaise Grindwell Norton (37x-48.7x) aur 3M India (57.8x-93.15x) se bhi zyada hai. ROE bhi kuch khaas nahi, bas 7.8% se 6.89% ke aas-paas hai. Aisa lag raha hai ki company ne jitna kamaaya nahi, usse zyada toh stock ka bhav badh gaya hai. Haalanki India mein manufacturing sector achha kar raha hai, par CUMI ki apni alag pareshaniyan hain.
Overseas Losses Ka Lagataar Bojh
Asal gadbad toh in videshi operations mein hi hai. Awuko, Foskor Zirconia, aur VAW Russia lagataar nuksaan de rahe hain. Iske chakkar mein, FY26 mein full-year net income bhi ₹2,927.4 million se gir kar ₹1,947.3 million ho gaya, revenue badhne ke bawajood. Matlab, jo domestic business achha kar raha hai, uska profit in videshi 'bojh' ki wajah se kam ho raha hai. High P/E ratio ke baad bhi agar earnings mein sudhaar nahi dikhega toh market naraaz ho sakta hai. Aur is restructuring mein bhi risks hain, jaise assets bechne mein dikkat ya operational problems.
Aage Kya? Analyst Ka Verdict
Management toh keh raha hai ki core business mein growth rahegi, aur advanced ceramics mein bhi invest kar rahe hain. Lekin sabse important ye hai ki overseas operations kaise perform karte hain aur global demand kya rehti hai. Prabhudas Lilladher toh isliye hi stock ko 'Reduce' karke ₹986 ka target price diya hai, unka kehna hai ki stock ka bhav company ki problems solve karne ki capacity se zyada upar chala gaya hai. Baaki analysts 'Hold' rating de rahe hain, jiska matlab hai ki zyada bade gains ki umeed nahi hai. Dekhna hoga ki company in nuksaan wale units se kab chutkara paati hai.