Whalesbook
Valuation ka Jhol:
CG Power ka recent performance toh infrastructure demand ke kaaran kaafi solid dikh raha hai. Unke power systems segment ne revenue mein 25% ka jump dikhaya hai, jo ki ₹3,442 crore tak pahunch gaya. Par market mein iska valuation 110x P/E ke bhi paar hai, matlab investors future ki success par paisa laga rahe hain, current results par nahi. Yeh P/E industrial electrical equipment ke liye kaafi zyada hai.
Orders toh hain, par profit margin ka kya?
Company ka backlog ₹17,107 crore tak pahunch gaya hai, jo FY27 tak revenue ki guarantee deta hai. Lekin, industrial systems segment mein growth sirf 2.3% rahi. Iska reason hai tough competition aur low-margin railway orders par focus. Haalanki EBITDA margins 15.8% tak badhe hain, yeh growth investment ke tareeke par depend karta hai.
Semiconductor Business ka Risk:
Investors ke liye ek bada concern hai CG Power ka semiconductor ATMP manufacturing mein utarne ka kharch. Is wajah se Q4 mein profitability kam hui, margins 110 basis points tak gir gaye. ABB India ya Siemens jaise rivals ke opposite, jo digital solutions par focus kar rahe hain, CG Power naye tech mein invest kar raha hai. Agar Sanand semiconductor plant mein deri hui ya bade buyers nahi mile, toh cash flow par pressure aa sakta hai. Aur haan, working capital cycle bhi 35 din se badhkar 81 din ho gaya hai, jo operational gains se zyada credit extend karne par growth dikhata hai.
Analysts ki Rai Milti Julti:
Analysts ki rai alag alag hai. Kuch jaise Nomura aur Emkay Global ne price targets badhaye hain kyunki power grids aur transformers ki demand zordaar hai. Doosre keh rahe hain ki stock 30% se 40% overvalued hai. FY28 tak CG Power ka valuation is baat par nirbhar karta hai ki woh naye businesses ko successfully scale karte hain aur raw material costs ko manage karte hain. Investors yahi dekhenge ki kya power systems segment semiconductor manufacturing ke costly entry ko support kar paayega.