Whalesbook
Brokerage ka caution, kya hai asli wajah?
Dekho, company ka business toh mast chal raha hai, especially defence aur truck market mein recovery dikh rahi hai. Management bhi kaafi optimistic hai. Lekin jab stock itna fast bhagta hai na, toh investors ko future mein aur bhi badhiya performance ki ummeed rehti hai.
Isi wajah se, ICICI Securities ne iska rating 'Add' se hata kar 'Hold' kar diya hai. Stock pichhle 6 mahine mein hi 52% tak upar gaya hai. Brokerage ne apna target price ₹1,900 set kiya hai, jo FY28 ke EPS ka 35x hai. Matlab, ab stock thoda mehenga lag raha hai.
Haaan, March 2026 quarter mein net sales 17.53% badh kar ₹4,528.04 crore ho gaye. Lekin asal baat ye hai ki sales aur EBITDA dono hi ICICI Securities ke estimates se kam nikle. Company ka market cap ab lagbhag ₹70,000 crore hai, aur P/E ratio 35x se 40x ke beech mein chal raha hai, jo kuch industrial peers se zyada hai.
Management ka kehna hai ki Class-8 truck demand aur domestic commercial vehicle market mein recovery aayegi. Defence aur aerospace mein bhi orderbook badh raha hai, jo long-term ke liye accha hai. ICICI Securities ne FY27 aur FY28 ke EBITDA estimates ko thoda ( 1% aur 7%) badhaya bhi hai. Par asli challenge ye hai ki company ye sab growth drivers ko kitna achhe se execute kar paati hai. Competition bhi hai, jaise HAL aur BDL bhi defence mein badh rahe hain. Aur manufacturing mein raw material (steel, energy) ka inflation toh sabko pareshan kar raha hai.
Kuch aur cheezein hain jin par nazar rakhni hogi: company ke overseas units ki profitability, aur inflation agar cost customers tak nahi pahuncha paye toh margins kam ho sakte hain. Stock ka RSI bhi high hai, matlab short term mein bada jump nahi bhi ho sakta. Lekin company ka diverse revenue aur orderbook stability de raha hai. Defense companies se alag, Bharat Forge abhi bhi volatile automotive sector par kafi depend karta hai.
Basically, analysts ke views abhi mix hain. Kuch log valuation ko lekar chintit hain, jabki kuch log company ke execution aur diversification par trust kar rahe hain. ICICI Securities ka ₹1,900 ka target dikhata hai ki unko future prospects par bharosa hai, par stock ki tez raftaar ab shayad thodi slow ho sakti hai.