Whalesbook
BHEL Ke Orders Mein Badi Tezi, Par Supply Chain Ka Sankat
JM Financial ka kehna hai ki Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) apna FY27 shuru karega kam se kam ₹2.5 trillion ke secured orders ke saath. Aur FY27 se FY29 tak 24 gigawatts ke naye projects bhi aa sakte hain. Ab tak is saal ₹70,000 crore se ₹75,000 crore tak ke orders aa chuke hain. Ye sab government ke initiatives ke karan ho raha hai, jaise FY32 tak 97 gigawatts thermal power capacity badhane ka target, jo future mein aur demand dega.
China Se Import Rules Mein Chhoot Se Fayda
Achi baat ye hai ki China se 21 components import karne ki restrictions hat gayi hain. Pehle Europe se mehenge suppliers se lena padta tha, jisse project delays aur costs badhte the. Ab CRGO coils, forgings, aur seamless pipes jaise critical items aasani se import ho sakte hain, jisse costs kam honge aur execution mein tezi aayegi. BHEL ka market cap ab ₹95,000 crore hai aur P/E 45x chal raha hai, stock ₹255 par hai.
Geopolitical Issues Se Gases Ki Supply Mein Problem
Lekin current situation thodi tricky hai. Middle East mein chal rahe conflict ki wajah se RLNG, LPG, aur helium jaise zaruri industrial gases ki supply chain disturb ho gayi hai. Especially helium ki kami se BHEL ke critical equipment ki production mein deri ho sakti hai, jisse fourth quarter ke performance par asar pad sakta hai.
Revenue Forecast Mein Giraavat
Isi supply chain problem ke karan, JM Financial ne BHEL ka FY26 revenue forecast ₹31,500 crore kar diya hai, aur Q4 mein ₹2,500-3,000 crore ki shortfall expect kar rahe hain. Margins toh FY26 mein 6-7% stable rehne ka guess hai, par agar geopolitical conflict badha toh FY27 ke estimates bhi adjust karne pad sakte hain. Stock ₹255 par trade kar raha hai, jo is saal ab tak 15.29% gir chuka hai. Par analyst ka target price ₹345 hai, matlab 35% tak ka upside potential dikh raha hai.
Risks Aur Valuation
BHEL ko government support aur bade order book ka fayda hai, par global conflicts ke karan supply chain risks toh hain hi. Company imported components par depend karti hai, khaas kar gases ke liye. Competitors jaise Thermax (P/E 60x) aur Siemens India (P/E 55x) bhi challenges face kar rahe hain, par unki supply chain alag ho sakti hai. BHEL ka P/E 45x bata raha hai ki market shayad kuch risks pehle se price in kar chuka hai. Agar tensions badhi toh projects delay ho sakte hain aur costs badh sakte hain.
Analysts Ke Kya Hain Bhavishya Ke Plans?
Agar current execution issues ko side mein rakhein toh BHEL mein future mein EBITDA margins FY25 ke 4.4% se badhkar FY28 tak 10% se zyada ho sakte hain. Earnings per share ₹1.5 se badhkar ₹11.5-12 tak ja sakta hai FY28 tak. Indian capital goods sector bhi government spending ke karan 12-15% annual growth kar sakta hai. JM Financial ne 'Buy' rating aur ₹345 ka target price maintain kiya hai. Baaki analysts bhi generally 'Buy' ya 'Hold' keh rahe hain, jinka average target price ₹280-300 ke beech mein hai.