Whalesbook
Is quarter mein AESL ne kuch bade milestones achieve kiye hain. Unhone Mumbai High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Project successfully commission kar liya hai, jisse 1,000 MW ki transmission capacity add hui hai. Isse Mumbai ki badhti power demand poori hogi aur grid stable rahega.
Aur toh aur, smart meter installations mein bhi company ne apna target tod diya hai, 1 crore se zyada smart meters lagaye ja chuke hain. Yeh energy distribution ko modern banane ki taraf ek bada kadam hai. Waise, company ka transmission network ab 27,949 circuit kilometers tak pahunch gaya hai, aur system availability 99.77% maintain ki gayi hai. Mumbai distribution mein, Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd (AEML) ne losses kam kar ke 4.20% kar diye hain aur supply reliability 99.997% rakhi hai. Yahan units sold bhi 4% badhe hain, jo achhi consumer demand dikha raha hai.
Ab aata hai valuation wala point. AESL ke paas 2.46 crore meters ka order book hai, jiski potential revenue ₹29,519 crore hai. India mein total 103 million smart units ka market hai. Mundra mein MPSEZ Utilities Ltd (MUL) ne bhi units sold mein 46% year-on-year jump dikhaya hai.
Lekin, sabse important baat yeh hai ki AESL ka P/E ratio 55x hai. Yeh Tata Power ke ~40x aur Power Grid Corp ke ~20x P/E se kaafi zyada hai. Matlab market ko isse bahut zyada growth ki umeed hai. Ab sawaal yeh hai ki kya company yeh expectations poori kar payegi? Smart meter order book se revenue generate karne mein time lag sakta hai, aur competition bhi tough hai. Debt par reliance aur interest rate rise bhi risks hain. Aur inke competitors jaise Tata Power renewables mein bhi hai, jabki AESL ka focus transmission, distribution aur metering pe zyada hai. Q4 mein CAIDI index mein thoda increase dikha hai, matlab operational improvement ki abhi bhi zaroorat hai.
Analysts bhi is par divided hain. Kuch log performance aur order book dekh kar price targets badha rahe hain, toh kuch valuation ko lekar cautious hain. Aane wale time mein yeh apne order book ko kaise revenue mein convert karte hain, aur naye projects kaise secure karte hain, yeh dekhna hoga.