Whalesbook
Target Miss Se Market Mein Chinta
APL Apollo Tubes ke liye Q4 mein growth target miss hona kaafi bada jhatka hai. Company ne bola tha ki 20% growth hoga, par aaya sirf 8.75% year-on-year. Poore saal ka growth 11% raha, jo theek hai, lekin agle quarter-on-quarter (sequential) growth lagbhag flat raha. Q3 mein 9.16 lakh tonnes se Q4 mein sirf 9.24 lakh tonnes hua. Is slow sequential growth ne investors ki chinta badha di hai, aur pichhle mahine stock 13% gir bhi chuka tha.
Segment Performance Mein Mili-Juli Picture
Company ke andar bhi sab jagah ek jaisi performance nahi rahi. Apollo Structural mein toh theek raha, par Apollo Z segment mein rust-proof mein growth dikhi, lekin coated segment mein volumes kam ho gaye. Lagta hai yahan competition zyada hai ya koi product issue hai. Haan, Apollo Galv ka agri/industrial segment 19% year-on-year growth dikha gaya, par baaki segments ki mix performance aur target miss ne market sentiment kharab kar diya.
Valuation Aur Analyst Kya Bolte Hain?
APL Apollo ka P/E ratio lagbhag 47.11 hai aur market cap ₹53,780 crore ke aas paas hai. Kuch analysts abhi bhi 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur ₹2,100-₹2,250 ka target de rahe hain. Lekin alag alag reports se pata chalta hai ki sabki rai same nahi hai. Stock Friday ko ₹1,934.8 par band hua, halanki intraday mein ₹2,012.5 tak gaya tha. Yeh differences dikhate hain ki market mein confusion hai.
Execution Aur Future Par Sawal
Target miss aur sequential growth mein kami se management ke execution aur demand forecasting par sawal khade ho rahe hain. Pehle FY26 ke liye 20% aur FY27 ke liye bhi 20% growth ka target diya tha, par Q4 ka performance us par doubt karta hai. Apollo Z coated segment mein kami competitive pressure ya market share loss ka signal de sakti hai. Agar growth consistently nahi mila toh is high valuation ko maintain karna mushkil ho sakta hai. Waise, company ke paas cash hai aur FY30 tak capacity 10 million tonnes karne ka plan hai, par investors abhi execution par nazar rakhenge.